Newswise — BOWLING GREEN, O.—Ohio Governor and GOP presidential candidate John Kasich enjoys a solid job approval rating in the state, where 56 percent of likely voters in the 2016 presidential election approve of the job he is doing as governor, while 34 percent disapprove. This is according to a recent Bowling Green State University poll of 804 likely Ohio voters conducted by Zogby Analytics on October 16 and 17.
The governor’s reputation is likely enhanced by the fact that more Ohioans feel the state is headed in the right direction, rather than the wrong track, which stands in sharp contrast to their sentiments about the country as a whole. Forty-eight percent believe things in Ohio are headed in the right direction, while 31 percent believe things are on the wrong track. Asked the same question about the United States, only 31 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, while 56 percent believe it is on the wrong track.
Moreover, four in ten voters credit Governor Kasich with the improved economic climate in the state. Asked who deserves the most credit for the economic recovery in Ohio, 40 percent say Governor Kasich while 22 percent say President Barack Obama. Another 16 percent credit them both.
“Governor Kasich’s case for the White House hinges in part on his being the popular governor of a critical swing state, and one who has helped steer Ohio on the path to economic recovery, said Dr. Melissa Miller, associate professor of political science at BGSU. “These numbers suggest it’s not a bad choice of strategy.”
Nevertheless, when the sample is limited to those 277 Ohioans who are likely to vote in the GOP presidential primary in March, Kasich places third with 13 percent of the vote behind billionaire Donald Trump (27 percent) and pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson (22 percent).
“In the presidential race, Governor Kasich appears to be falling victim to the anti-establishment mood felt in Ohio and around the country,” said Miller. “Once the presidential campaign moves to Ohio, things could change markedly,” she continued, “but Kasich and the other seasoned politicians running for the GOP presidential nomination have to make it past Iowa, New Hampshire and the other early primary states first.”
Among the GOP presidential candidates, Kasich was one of only two who enjoy a positive differential in terms of favorability. Kasich’s favorability among Ohio’s likely voters outweighs his unfavorability by 6 percentage points (43.4 percent favorable versus 37.7 percent unfavorable). Only Ben Carson enjoys a similar—but smaller—positive skew (39.9 percent favorable versus 37.2 percent unfavorable). Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Chris Christie all post a favorability deficit among likely Ohio voters. Donald Trump, for instance, is viewed favorably by 36.7 percent and unfavorably by 53.8 percent.
The BGSU Poll included 306 Democrats, 249 Republicans and 249 Independents who self identified as likely to vote in the 2016 presidential election. Proportionally, the partisan composition of the sample mirrors the partisan composition of the 2012 presidential electorate in Ohio based on CNN exit poll results. The BGSU Poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The BGSU Poll explores attitudes on critical issues facing the citizens of Ohio and supports the research interests of the University’s faculty and students. Additional results breaking down the Ohio presidential primary, candidate traits, and Ohio's ballot issues can be found here.
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