Time to Rethink Predicting Pandemic Infection Rates?
American Institute of Physics (AIP)Doubling times and exponential growth go hand in hand, so it became clear to Joseph Lee McCauley, when watching the COVID-19 rates, that modeling based on past infections is impossible, because the rate changes unforeseeably from day to day due to social distancing and lockdown efforts. In AIP Advances, McCauley explains how he combined math with a statistical ensemble to understand how macroscopic exponential growth with different daily rates arise from person-to-person disease infection.