Scientists have developed a new computer modeling technique that offers the promise, for the first time, of producing continually updated daylong predictions of wildfire growth throughout the lifetime of long-lived blazes. The technique, developed by a research team led by NCAR, combines detailed computer simulations with newly available satellite observations.
Although a significant build-up in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would alter worldwide precipitation patterns, geoengineering would also interfere with rainfall and snowfall. An international study, led by NCAR scientists, finds that “geoengineering” could result in monsoonal rains in North America, East Asia, and other regions dropping by 5-7 percent compared to preindustrial conditions because of less evaporation and reduced plant emissions of water.
Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance. The new research, led by scientists at NCAR, could potentially enable forecasts of the likelihood of U.S. heat waves 15-20 days out, giving society more time to prepare for these often-deadly events.
Four lead authors and editors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report will participate in a U.S. media teleconference this Friday at 12:00 Noon (Eastern Time). The teleconference is presented by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and partner universities.
When enough raindrops fall over land instead of the ocean, they begin to add up. New research led by NCAR shows that three atmospheric patterns drove so much precipitation over Australia in 2010 and 2011 that the world’s ocean levels dropped measurably.
The NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center has been named the 2013 “‘Green’ Data Center of the Year” at the inaugural Datacenter Dynamics North American Awards.
Taking part in the largest U.S. air quality field project in decades, the National Center for Atmospheric Research is working with partners to study pollution in the Southeast. The study looks at the impact of chemical reactions occurring between human-related pollution and volatile organic compounds emitted from vegetation.
NCAR is launching a major field campaign this week with collaborators to better predict where and when spring thunderstorms will hit the Rockies and Plains. The project, featuring research aircraft and cutting-edge computer simulations, will point the way toward major improvements in 6- to 24-hour forecasts of severe weather.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research, building on a pioneering wind energy forecasting system that saved millions of dollars for Xcel Energy ratepayers in eight states, has entered into a new agreement with the utility for even more sophisticated weather forecasts to increase the reliability of solar and wind energy.
The main source of online weather training for meteorologists, emergency managers, and others is seeking donations to try to stay in business.
With coastal areas bracing for rising sea levels, new research indicates that cutting emissions of certain pollutants can greatly slow down sea level rise. Reductions in the four pollutants that cycle comparatively quickly through the atmosphere could forestall the rate of sea level rise by roughly 25 to 50 percent.
Applying its atmospheric expertise to solar energy, NCAR is spearheading a three-year, nationwide project to create unprecedented, 36-hour forecasts of incoming energy from the Sun. The prototype system will forecast sunlight every 15 minutes over specific solar facilities, thereby enabling utilities to continuously anticipate the amount of available solar energy.
Even if you live more than 1,000 miles from the nearest large city, it could be affecting your weather. New research shows that the heat generated by everyday activities in metropolitan areas influences major atmospheric systems, raising and lowering temperatures over thousands of miles.
Raising further concerns about sea level rise, a study finds that the West Antarctica Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as much as previously thought. The study, which will appear in Nature Geoscience, finds an increase of 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit since 1958 – three times faster than the global average.
NCAR has developed a prototype system to help flights avoid major storms as they travel over remote ocean regions. The 8-hour forecasts of potentially dangerous atmospheric conditions are designed for pilots, air traffic controllers, and others involved in flights over remote ocean regions where limited weather information is available.
Scientists have developed a new system that adapts techniques used in weather prediction to generate local forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks. By predicting the timing and severity of the outbreaks as far as seven weeks in advance, the system can eventually help society better prepare for them.
Climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise, according to a new analysis by NCAR. The findings could provide a breakthrough in the longstanding quest to narrow the range of expected global warming.
Expanding its focus on the link between the atmosphere and human health, NCAR is launching a three-year, international study into the impact of open-fire cooking on regional air quality and disease. The broad research team will analyze the effects of smoke from traditional cooking on households, villages, and entire regions.
The NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center, which houses one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers dedicated to the geosciences, officially opens today. Scientists at NCAR and universities across the country are launching a series of initial scientific projects on the center’s flagship, a 1.5-petaflop IBM supercomputer known as Yellowstone.
With the U.S. economy vulnerable to weather events costing billions of dollars, an expert panel today asked Congress to create the first U.S. Weather Commission. The commission would provide guidance to policymakers on leveraging weather expertise across government and the private sector to better protect lives and businesses.
For airline passengers who dread bumpy rides to mountainous destinations, help is on the way. A new NCAR turbulence avoidance system has for the first time been approved for use at a U.S. airport and can be adapted for additional airports in rugged settings across the United States and overseas.
China's efforts to reduce pollution for the Beijing Olympics has enabled scientists to quantify traffic impacts on carbon dioxide emissions. New research led by NCAR shows Beijing's lighter traffic achieved a percentage of the emissions cut that would be needed worldwide to prevent warming from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.
A decline in the population of emperor penguins appears likely this century as climate change reduces Antarctic sea ice, according to a detailed projection published this week. The study concludes that the number of breeding pairs in a much-observed penguin colony may drop by about 80 percent by 2100.
Scientists are targeting thunderstorms across the U.S. to discover what happens when clouds suck up air from Earth’s surface many miles into the atmosphere.
Scientists are working to solve a critical wintertime weather mystery: how to accurately measure the amount of snow on the ground.
A new international study, with NCAR co-authors, suggests that the Little Ice Age was triggered by an unusual, 50-year episode of four massive volcanic eruptions. This led to an expansion of sea ice and a related weakening of Atlantic currents that caused the cool period to persist for centuries.
Improved forecasting of winter storms and innovative technological systems to keep winter drivers safe are among the goals of new work at NCAR and collaborating organizations. The winter research, perfect for seasonal features, focuses on storm forecasting, stratospheric events that jeopardize communications systems, high-tech tools to measure snowfall, and more.
NCAR today announced that IBM will install major components of a petascale supercomputing system at the new NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center. The system, known as Yellowstone, will advance the nation’s research capabilities for severe weather, climate change, and other critical areas of the geosciences.
NCAR today announced that IBM will install major components of a petascale supercomputing system at the new NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center. The system, known as Yellowstone, will advance the nation’s research capabilities for severe weather, climate change, and other critical areas of the geosciences.
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research named Dr. Thomas J. Bogdan as its new president today, following an extensive international search. Bogdan, director of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, will assume his new position on January 9.
An international team of researchers will begin gathering in the Indian Ocean next month to study an atmospheric pattern that affects weather worldwide. The six-month field campaign, supported in part by NCAR, will help improve long-range weather forecasts and computer models of climate change.
The planet’s deep oceans at times may absorb enough heat to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade even in the midst of longer-term warming, according to a new analysis led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Although the burning of natural gas emits far less carbon dioxide than coal, a new study by an NCAR researcher concludes that a greater reliance on natural gas would fail to significantly slow down climate change. Coal releases more carbon dioxide, but it also releases particles that cool the planet.
A three-year series of research flights from the Arctic to the Antarctic has produced an unprecedented portrait of greenhouse gases. The HIPPO project, led by NCAR, Harvard, and NOAA, is enabling researchers to generate the first detailed mapping of the global distribution of gases and particles that affect Earth’s climate.
Scientists this month are wrapping up a three-year series of missions from the Arctic to the Antarctic aboard an advanced research aircraft, having successfully made the most extensive airborne measurements of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and particles to date. Mission scientists will discuss preliminary findings and describe the mission in detail.
Although Arctic sea ice appears fated to melt as the climate continues to warm, the ice may temporarily stabilize or somewhat expand at times over the next few decades, new research indicates.
A new study sheds light on why the Sun’s outer atmosphere, or corona, is more than 20 times hotter than its surface. The research, led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), may bring scientists a step closer to understanding the solar cycle and the Sun’s impacts on Earth.
Researchers have found that areas near commercial airports sometimes experience a small but measurable increase in rain and snow when aircraft take off and land under certain atmospheric conditions.
The economic impacts of routine weather events can add up to 3.4% of the nation's GDP.
New research focusing on the Houston area suggests that widespread urban development alters wind patterns in a way that can make it easier for pollutants to build up during warm summer weather instead of being blown out to sea.
Aircraft safety is getting a boost from a new computer-generated forecast that provides pilots with critical weather information on the likelihood of encountering dangerous in-flight icing conditions.
Cities worldwide are failing to take necessary steps to protect residents from the likely impacts of climate change, even though billions of urban dwellers are vulnerable to heat waves, sea level rise, and other changes associated with warming temperatures.
Wolverine habitat in the northwestern United States is likely to warm dramatically if society continues to emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, according to new computer model simulations carried out at NCAR. The study found that climate change is likely to imperil the wolverine in two ways: reducing or eliminating the springtime snow cover that wolverines rely on to protect and shelter newborn kits, and increasing August temperatures well beyond what the species may be able to tolerate.
The magnitude of climate change during Earth’s deep past suggests that future temperatures may eventually rise far more than projected if society continues its pace of emitting greenhouse gases, a new analysis concludes. Building on recent research, the study examines the relationship between global temperatures and high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere tens of millions of years ago.
One of the most enduring mysteries in solar physics is why the Sun’s outer atmosphere, or corona, is millions of degrees hotter than its surface. Now scientists believe they have discovered a major source of hot gas that replenishes the corona: narrow jets of plasma, known as spicules, shooting up from just above the Sun’s surface. The finding addresses a fundamental question in astrophysics: how energy moves from the Sun’s interior.
A new study finds that microscopic particles of dust, emitted into the atmosphere when dirt breaks apart, follow similar fragment patterns as broken glass and other brittle objects. The research suggests there are several times more dust particles in the atmosphere than previously believed, since shattered dirt appears to produce an unexpectedly high number of large dust fragments. The finding has implications for understanding future climate change because dust plays a significant role in controlling the amount of solar energy in the atmosphere.
The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought. The analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years, possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.
Changes in population growth and composition, including aging and urbanization, could significantly affect global emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 40 years, according to a new study in PNAS out next week.
New research shows the extent to which such sustained winds can dramatically lower water levels. The research suggests that such a "wind setdown" event could have led to a parting of waters similar to the description in the biblical account of the Red Sea.
In a bid to unlock longstanding mysteries of the Sun, including the impacts on Earth of its 11-year cycle, an international team of scientists has successfully probed a distant star. By monitoring the star's sound waves, the team has observed a magnetic cycle analogous to the Sun's solar cycle.
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