Newswise — About 20 percent of all nations face a serious risk of civil war or governmental collapse, including a half dozen at high risk of future genocides, says a new report from the University of Maryland, Peace and Conflict 2005. Among the areas of greatest risk, the report highlights large portions of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Muslim world.

The report documents a mixture of promise and threat: it ranks nearly half of the 161 nations studied as facing serious threats that may require international action, but finds that separatist civil wars have dropped in both number and intensity to the lowest levels since 1960 "down in the past two years by one-third. The university's Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) issues the report every two years.

Beyond the numbers, Peace and Conflict 2005 identifies the shifting nature of global threats " away from the national ethnic conflicts of the post-Cold War era toward transnational struggles, marked by the spread of the jihadist movement through the Muslim world and an extensive humanitarian crisis in Africa.

"We are witnessing the end of the post-Soviet era of conflict and the rise of a more globalized threat that transcends borders," says Ted Robert Gurr, a University of Maryland political scientist who co-authored the report. "But even where we've seen the most progress, the agreements and democracies that have been put in place remain fragile and could break down." Gurr adds that international cooperation is a key to maintaining the progress.

"The strategies that worked so well resolving dozens of bloody national conflicts over the past 15 years may not be adequate to the emerging challenges," says George Mason University political scientist Monty G. Marshall, the report's lead author. "But clearly international cooperation will play a crucial role in dealing with the globalization of conflict."

Among the other trends noted in Peace and Conflict 2005:

--Areas at greatest risk for future genocide: Burma, Algeria, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia (analysis by Barbara Harff, visiting professor of genocide studies at Clark University);

--High casualty terrorist acts increased very sharply post-9/11, with suicide bombs the weapon of choice; terrorism has become the dominant 21st century security concern;

--Most democratic regimes established during the 1980s and 1990s have endured despite political and economic crises, but remain at risk of backsliding into autocracy;

--Between 2001 and 2004, 13 major self-determination conflicts were settled or contained, offset by a half-dozen new or renewed campaigns, including those in Darfur and Indonesia's Aceh province (analysis by Deepa Khosla, professor of political science, Memorial University, Newfoundland);

--Repression and political discrimination against ethnic minorities have declined significantly, along with the decline in autocratic regimes and containment of separatist wars (analysis by CIDCM researchers Victor Asal and Amy Pate).

The report is available online: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/peace.htm. The Center for International Development and Conflict Management is an interdisciplinary research center at the University of Maryland.

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CITATIONS

"Peace and Conflict 2005"