Newswise — China is clearly poised to overtake Team USA in the medal tally, says Curt Hamakawa, director of the Center for International Sport Business at Western New England College in Springfield, MA, and former member of the United States Olympic Committee.
"While the United States has led the medal tally " both gold and overall " at the three previous Olympic Games in Atlanta, Sydney and Athens, Team USA will be hard pressed to maintain its supremacy at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing if performance trends are any indication," he says.
"In 1988, China won a mere five gold medals at the Olympic Games in Seoul, but in less than two decades has catapulted to within striking distance by finishing third place overall at the past two Olympic Games, behind United States and Russia, and coming within four gold medals of tying the US in gold medals in 2004."
"Conversely, the United States' gold medals in 2004 were the fewest since 1976 and bode ill for Team USA in Beijing given China's ascendancy over the past three games combined with its record spending in preparation for a breakout performance on its home soil this summer."
"Notably, the gap between the United States' position atop the leader board and countries in pursuit has narrowed considerably over the past three Olympic Games, from 36 medals in 1996 to just 10 medals in 2004. In terms of its gold-medal progression since 1996 (16 in 1996, 28 in 2000, and 32 in 2004), China is clearly poised to overtake Team USA in 2008. This is all the more plausible given the United States' gold-medal regression over this same period (44 in '96, 37 in '00 and 36 in '04)."
"Perhaps more significant is China's 100 percent increase in the number of gold medals going from 16 in 1992 to 32 in 2004, while the United States' performance has remained relatively static," he says.
Hamakawa served in the United States Olympic Committee for 16 years as associate general counsel (1990-1992), director of athlete services (1992-2000) and director of international relations (2000-2006) before joining Western New England College.
He is taking 13 students to the Olympic Games this year, from August 8-17, where they will watch the first half of the Games; meet with leading sport, government, business and academic officials; as well as visit some of the local cultural destinations.
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