Newswise — The immediate outcomes of corruption are frequently evident. Many outlets, both in Russia and the West, view the prevalent corruption within the military as a primary cause for logistical issues, extremely low soldier morale, and extensive losses suffered by the Red Army in Ukraine. In late 2016, a corruption controversy led to the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, the inaugural female leader elected in an Asian nation, South Korea.
It is conceivable that the ongoing "Qatargate," a political scandal arising from suspicions of bribery involving certain members of the European Parliament by the governments of Qatar, Morocco, and Mauritania, could have immediate and distressing repercussions for the implicated politicians, should they be proven guilty. However, what remains uncertain is the long-term harm this scandal may inflict upon European institutions.
The Italian "Mani Pulite" (Clean Hands) investigation, conducted from 1992 to 1994, exposed pervasive corruption among Italian politicians, illustrating that political corruption also leaves a lasting impact on trust in democratic institutions and voter behavior. This effect varies based on one's age group, as individuals who were first-time voters during the revelations of corruption continue to be affected even after more than two decades.
In a recent study conducted by Arnstein Aassve, Gianmarco Daniele, and Marco Le Moglie from the Bocconi Department of Social and Political Sciences, it is highlighted that 23% of national Members of Parliament (MPs) and an astonishing 75% of MPs belonging to the Christian Democrat and Socialist parties, which were in power at the time, faced charges of corruption during the "Mani Pulite" investigation years. This revelation had a significant impact on the 1994 electoral campaign, as political corruption became the central focus. Notably, prior to this period, Italian TV news had largely overlooked the issue of political corruption. However, in 1993, the scandal dominated media coverage, with nearly 90% of front pages dedicated to the unfolding events.
Leveraging data from Trustlab, a project led by the OECD to gather nationally representative data on trust and political beliefs for comparative analysis, the researchers discovered that Italian individuals who were first-time voters in 1994 exhibited a 9% higher likelihood of voting for populist parties in 2018, based on their self-reported voting behavior. Additionally, these individuals displayed lower levels of institutional trust, specifically in parliament, government, and civil servants. However, their trust in other entities unrelated to the Clean Hands scandal, such as the police, media, and financial institutions, as well as their social trust towards other individuals, remained unaffected.
The impact of the corruption scandal is particularly pronounced among individuals with lower levels of education and those who were more exposed to TV news in regions heavily affected by the scandal. Moreover, the effect primarily manifests in the 2018 election, with a higher likelihood of voting for the right-wing populist party Lega. Conversely, the vote for the left-wing populist party Movimento 5 Stelle remains largely unaffected by the scandal's influence.
Arnstein Aassve, a Full Professor of Demography at Bocconi University, emphasizes the significance of an informational political shock in our study. This shock becomes particularly relevant when considering the higher malleability of beliefs and attitudes among first-time voters, attributable to their age and their newfound exposure to politics and political news as they become eligible to vote. It underscores the critical role that information and exposure to political events play in shaping the political behavior and choices of young voters.
According to the scholars' findings, first-time voters during the corruption scandal also exhibit more negative attitudes towards immigrants and refugees in 2018. This observation suggests an intriguing spill-over effect, indicating that the detrimental consequences of corruption extend beyond trust and voting behavior. Instead, these effects seem to influence the policy preferences supported by populist parties. This insight underscores the broader societal impact of political corruption, which can shape public attitudes towards sensitive issues such as immigration and refugees.
Gianmarco Daniele, Arnstein Aassve, Marco le Moglie, “Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy.” Published online ahead of print, The Journal of Politics. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/723019.
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