Newswise — According to sports management expert Shawn O’Rourke, of Canisius College, the establishment of an open, trusting relationship between National Hockey League (NHL) Commissioner Gary Bettman and NHLPA Executive Director Donald Fehr is the key to resolving the NHL lockout, which is now nearly three weeks old. O’Rourke believes a settlement could be reached by January 1 when the NHL’s Winter Classic outdoor game is scheduled to be played.

“It’s communication 101,” says O’Rourke. “When you look at all of the collective bargaining agreements (CBAs), including football, baseball and basketball, the two main people doing the negotiating have developed relationships over the years. But Fehr is the new guy in this situation. Once they feel comfortable with each other, some serious progress will be made.”

O’Rourke is associate dean of the School of Education at Canisius College and director of its Sport Administration Program. He teaches courses in leadership, business and finance of sport, and moral and ethical issues in sport. O’Rourke’s research specialties include organizational effectiveness, online learning and business of sport.

Little progress was made during negotiations between the NHL and NHLPA this summer. The current CBA expired on September 15 and the NHL locked out its players. Pre-season games have already been cancelled and the regular season in serious jeopardy.

There needs to be trust established in the management vs. employee relationship as well, notes O’Rourke. “Right now the owners say, ‘We have teams that are losing money’ and the players say ‘We don’t believe you, show us your books.”

Fehr, a former professional baseball union boss, is well-qualified to negotiate on the players’ behalf, notes O’Rourke. “Fehr is a longtime player guy who has a reputation of holding the line and getting the players the good deal,” says O’Rourke. “He is trying to consolidate this group and to date he has done a really good job of it.”

The core issue behind the NHL lockout is $3.4 billion in hockey-related revenue. Players currently get 57 percent and owners get 43 percent. Owners would like to reverse that figure.

“I think if it got down to it, a 50-50 split would get the deal done, although I’m not sure it will get there,” says O’Rourke.

The big question will be, notes O’Rourke how will big money-making teams such as the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs share league revenue with teams who lose money such as the Phoenix Coyotes and Florida Panthers?

But, adds O’Rourke, players may be more motivated to make a deal in November once they miss a few paychecks.

“It may take a few veteran players, who say, ‘I can’t make up that $2 million,’ to get things moving.”

To date, nearly 90 players have signed overseas with European leagues. O’Rourke says this raises several important ethical issues.

“On one hand you have the NHL players who say they stand together, but 90 of them leave for Europe. Some question the solidarity there,” says O’Rourke. “In addition, these players are taking someone else’s spot on a European team. They aren’t taking the spots of NHL-caliber players, but less-skilled players.”

However, it’s not the players, but the support staff who are most affected by the NHL lockout, notes O’Rourke. “When owners need to trim costs, staff gets cut, or their work-week is shortened,” he says. “Game day staff, such as ticket takers and ushers, are the type of people who are hurt during this lockout situation.”

This is the third NHL work stoppage during Bettman’s 20-year tenure as NHL commissioner (1994-1995 and 2004-2005). In 2005, the entire season was cancelled.

Does O’Rourke envision the same fate for this season?

“My best educated guess is that the season will resume by January 1, because that is when the Winter Classic outdoor game is scheduled to be played,” says O’Rourke. “That is a big revenue producer for the NHL.”

And if and when the season does resume, will fans be too disgruntled from the lockout to return to the game? Not at all, says O’Rourke.

“If history is any indication, fans will return in droves, which is what they did in 2005,” he says “The lockout and missed season did not hurt the game one iota. People say, ‘What about the casual fans?’ Hockey does not have casual fans. These are hard-core fans who are passionate about this game.”

To speak with Shawn O'Rourke, contact the Canisius College Office of Public Relations at 716-888-2790.