October 29, 1998
Contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, (615) 322-NEWS, [email protected]
The following Vanderbilt University professors are available for comment and analysis concerning the Nov. 3 election:
'98 election is opportunity for Gore to build momentum for presidential run: The upcoming election is a chance for Vice President Al Gore to strengthen his hand for the Democratic nomination for President. By helping Democratic candidates across the country, he is building up political capital. In a year when President Clinton draws mixed reviews, his assistance is particularly important.
The Lewinsky scandal itself poses a double edge sword for Gore. On the one hand, Clinton's problems make Gore look like a Boy Scout by comparison. And it is essential that Gore find a way to distance himself from Clinton in a favorable way. The down side is that the public may be so sick of scandal that any candidate with problems brewing (i.e. campaign finance difficulties) may find a less than excited electorate. Source: John Geer, a Vanderbilt University political scientist whose expertise includes political parties, campaigns, public opinion and political advertising. He can be reached at (615) 343-5746.
Religious Right could make the difference in the outcome of '98 election: The Religious Right could play a key role in the results of several races across the nation this year if it is successful in mobilizing an anti-Clinton vote among white, Evangelical Christians. Turnout is traditionally low during a mid-term election, so the political party that can mobilize a particular base of support has the advantage. In 1994, nearly 30 percent of the voters were white, Evangelical Christians. Approximately 80 percent of them voted Republican. On the other hand, the Christian Coalition has narrowed its agenda since the departure of Ralph Reed, so it may have lessened its appeal somewhat to voters supporting moderate Republican issues. Source: Geoff Layman, assistant professor of political science at Vanderbilt whose areas of research include political parties and the religious right. He can be reached at (615) 322-6240
Education at the forefront of campaign issues for both political parties: Issues such as reduced class size and statewide exams for students are receiving heavy emphasis from both parties this year because Democrats and Republicans alike are listening to the voters. There is also increased support for reliance on the marketplace for charter schools and school vouchers in response to the polls. While teacher unions traditionally have been a large part of the Democratic base of support, the NEA has endorsed more Republicans this year - including the GOP gubernatorial candidate in Illinois. Source: James Guthrie, professor of public policy and education and director of the Center for Education Policy at Vanderbilt University. He can be reached at (615) 322-7372.
State legislative races offer insight into strength of two-party system in the South: One of the most remarkable trends in American politics over the last three decades has been the increasing Republican identification in the South. This translated into the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994. Now the question is whether Republican gains in the South can be extended. A key factor will be the party's ability to recruit quality candidates. Political analysts will be keeping an eye on the outcomes of state legislative races because there are two major advantages to state legislative majorities. First, this is often where future congressional candidates are groomed. Secondly, in the years after the next census, control of state legislatures will help determine the outcome of fights over redistricting. Source: Bradley Palmquist, assistant professor of political science at Vanderbilt University who has conducted extensive research on party identification issues for an upcoming book. He can be reached at (615) 322-6239.
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