SEIR Model to Address the Impact of Face Masks amid COVID-19 PandemicSociety for Risk Analysis (SRA)
One suggested way to save humankind in the event of a deadly pandemic or other extreme global catastrophe is establishing a safe refuge – on an island or in such far-out places as the moon or under water -- where a portion of the human population can stay alive.
To slow down the accelerating pace of climate change, scientists are working on radical geoengineering technologies like space mirrors, ocean iron fertilization, and cirrus cloud thinning to tweak the earth’s climate system. But a new study published in the journal Risk Analysis finds that none of these human interventions are risk free. Instead, “they merely shift risk or redistribute it,” says lead author Benjamin Sovacool, professor of energy policy at the University of Sussex Business School and a professor at Aarhus University and Boston University. “These risk tradeoffs must be evaluated if some of the more radical geoengineering technologies are to be deployed.”
A study published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that people who embrace the ideologies of libertarianism and anti-egalitarianism are more likely to disregard the risks of COVID-19 and oppose government actions.
Results of a study published in the scientific journal Risk Analysis indicate that the recent increase in mail-based voting due to COVID-19 has not jeopardized the safety of the U.S. elections process. Instead, mail-based voting increases voter access and may reduce the likelihood of adversarial interference, the authors argue.
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) awarded seven prestigious scholarly and service awards and named three new fellows at this year’s virtual annual meeting. These awardees were recognized for their exceptional contributions to SRA and to the risk analysis community. The award recipients were nominated by their peers, selected by an SRA committee, and approved by the SRA Council.
Flooding is the most expensive natural disaster in the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), costing the country more than $1 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars since 1980. Rising sea level and more intense storms could be devastating for the more than 40 percent of Americans who live in coastal areas.
The shutdown of the Colonial gas pipeline in May 2021 had a disastrous impact on many sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly those dependent on the country’s transportation infrastructure. The incident was a warning that the failure of one critical infrastructure has a ripple effect on others, leading to sometimes serious human and economic consequences.
Climate change is fueling more floods, droughts, wildfires, and extreme storms across the United States. As a result, aging power grids are being pushed beyond their limits, sometimes with deadly impacts. (In 2020, a series of unusual winter storms knocked the power out in Texas for days -- leading to shortages of water and heat and more than 100 deaths.)
Throughout its unsteady course, the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the behavior of businesses and households. Those behavioral changes, intensified by government actions like mandatory closures, have had a reverberating impact on the U.S. economy.
In the face of a potentially disastrous storm like Hurricane Ida, people take to Twitter and other social media sites to communicate vital information. New research published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that monitoring and analyzing this social media “chatter” during a natural disaster could help decision makers learn how to plan for and mitigate the impacts of severe weather events in their communities.
As melting sea ice brings more ships through the Northwest Passage, new research shows that Canada must prepare for the costs and consequences of an Arctic oil spill
New research suggests that cooperative strategies for sharing emergency power among households can be 10 to 40 times less costly than running individual gas-powered generators
Although bank robbery has been declining over the last decades, there are still offenders willing to rob bank branches, even if economic benefits are small. The impact from bank robberies goes well beyond the direct economic loss with considerable human toll and possible psychological after-effects on employees, customers or police officers. Sometimes, the consequences are fatal.
The international journal Risk Analysis has published a timely special issue for May 2021, “Global Systemic Risk and Resilience for Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19.” Featuring 11 papers written for this issue over the past year, the collection represents a sampling of insights and viewpoints from scholars across risk sciences and resilience analytics to guide decision-making and operations related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
A new study in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that countries representing more than 80 percent of potential growth in low-carbon electricity demand—in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa—may lack the economic or institutional quality to deploy nuclear power to meet their energy needs. The authors suggest that if nuclear power is to safely expand its role in mitigating climate change, countries need to radically improve their ability to manage the technology.
As COVID-19 vaccines slowly roll out across the world, government officials in densely populated countries must still manage vulnerable communities at highest risk of an outbreak. In a new study published in the journal Risk Analysis, researchers in India propose a COVID Risk Assessment and Mapping (CRAM) framework that results in a zoned map that officials can use to place more targeted restrictions on high-risk communities. Successfully used by officials in Jaipur at the peak of the pandemic last spring, their framework could help other vulnerable countries avoid a shutdown of their regional economies.
The Volcano Alert Level (VAL) system, standardized by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2006, is meant to save lives and keep citizens living in the shadow of an active volcano informed of their current level of risk. A new study published in Risk Analysis suggests that, when an alert remains elevated at any level above “normal” due to a period of volcanic unrest, it can cause a decline in the region’s housing prices and other economic indicators. Because of this, the authors argue that federal policymakers may need to account for the effects of prolonged volcanic unrest — not just destructive eruptions — in the provision of disaster relief funding.
Climate services are vital tools for decision makers addressing climate change in developing countries. Science-based seasonal forecasts and accompanying materials can support climate risk management in agriculture, health, water management, energy, and disaster risk reduction. But in East Africa, natural resource managers have been slow to use climate information services, partly because they are difficult to understand and may not feel relevant for their local planning purposes. A new study published by the journal Risk Analysis suggests that one way to encourage policymakers in East Africa to use climate services more often is to appeal to the motivational factors that influence their professional actions on climate change.
Insurance policy premiums from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) allow policyholders to maintain a lower, grandfathered rate even when the risk escalates. But as coastal flooding increases due to rising sea level and more intense storms, new research published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests this grandfathered policy could lead to big losses for the NFIP. A team of experts led by Carolyn Kousky, executive director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, studied the effect of sea level rise on a New York City neighborhood to illustrate how grandfathered rates could impact both policyholder premiums and program revenue for the NFIP over the next 30 years. Their results project losses to the NFIP as flood risk grows in the coming decades.
Launched in 1988, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) stands out as one of the largest, internationally coordinated global public health major projects conducted to date, with cumulative spending of over $16.5 billion for 1988–2018, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). More than 30 years later, stubborn outbreaks of wild poliovirus still occur in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where cases have been increasing since 2018. The global eradication of polio continues to be an elusive goal.
A new study in the journal Risk Analysis found that people are more likely to blame a vehicle’s automation system and its manufacturer than its human driver when a crash occurs.
New drivers between the ages of 15 and 25 account for nearly half of the more than one million road deaths that occur worldwide each year, according to the World Health Organization. Educational programs often use fear-based messaging and films of crash scenes to reduce risky driving behavior among young people. But does this “scary” approach work?
An estimated 48 million cases of foodborne illness are contracted in the U.S. annually, causing about 128,000 hospitalizations and 3,000 deaths, according to CDC. In some instances, the source is well known, but 80 percent of food poisoning cases are of unknown origin. A new study published by Risk Analysis, proposes a new Food Safety Monitoring System that utilizes data mining on websites to identify products associated with food-related illnesses.
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) inducted Eula Bingham, Steve Rayner and Martin Weitzman to the Pantheon of Risk Analysis. The Pantheon, established in 2008, recognizes luminaries and visionaries in risk analysis and serves to illustrate how the field contributes to the advancement of knowledge and public good.
Over the course of its virtual Annual Meeting, the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) awarded six prestigious scholarly and service awards and named seven new Fellows. These awards recognize 14 individuals for their outstanding contributions to the society and to the science of risk analysis. The recipients were nominated by their peers, selected by a committee of SRA members and approved by the SRA Council.
During its virtual Annual Meeting, the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) announced the addition of five new Council members and the rise of Robyn Wilson Ph.D., The Ohio State University, as the new President of its 2021 Council. Wilson succeeds Seth Guikema, Ph.D., University of Michigan, who has completed his term and will continue to serve on the Council as past-president.
Human error is a causal factor in up to 80 percent of workplace accidents. A new study measuring the eye movements and cognitive processes for at-risk workers, sheds new light on the potential to avert accidents and possibly prevent workplace injuries. The study “Measuring attention, working memory, and visual perception to reduce risk of injuries in the construction industry,” by Behzad Esmaeili, Ph.D., George Mason University challenges the conventional, reactionary paradigm of safety-risk management.
In an effort to understand the potential risks associated with exposure to micro/nanoplastics, the Emerging Risks of Micro/nanoplastics: Perspectives From Diverse Sectors symposia at the 2020 Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting, December 13-17, 2020, aims to highlight the current state of knowledge associated with physical and chemical transformation, hazard characterization, environmental effects, social implications and policy limitations.
The pandemic has impacted farmers, children, plant workers and even office workers in unique ways that go beyond physical illness. Several studies that explore these individualized effects will be presented during the Individual Impacts of Global Pandemic Risks session and the COVID-19: Risk Communication and Social Dynamics of Transmission and Vulnerability symposia, both from 2:30-4:00 p.m. ET on December 15, at the 2020 Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting, December 13-17, 2020.
Several studies that aim to characterize and quantify the release and composition, particle size, and residence time in the indoor environment will be presented in the Exposure and Risk Assessment of 3D Printing and Emerging Materials symposium on December 15, from 12:00-1:30 p.m. ET at the 2020 Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting held December 13-17, 2020.
Restoring science in the White House is the topic of the presidential roundtable discussion at that the Society for Risk Analysis’ (SRA) Virtual Annual Meeting, on Thursday, December 17 from 12:00 – 1:30 p.m. ET.
The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been characterized by rapidly changing information, a high degree of uncertainty, and conflicting information about transmission, vulnerability and mitigation methods. Several studies focused on public perceptions of the pandemic and the impact of media will be presented during two sessions on December 15, from 2:30-4:00 during the Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting, December 13-17, 2020.
A new study published in Risk Analysis, “Reinventing cloth masks in the face of pandemics,” by Stephen Salter, P.Eng., describes how Effective Fiber Mask Programs (EFMPs) can help communities find a balance between the economy and curbing community spread.