Quantitative social scientist can share "blue splash" predictions for November midterms


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  • newswise-fullscreen Quantitative social scientist can share

    Credit: Mirta Galesic, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Henrik Olsson, Dražen Prelec

    Advantage of Democrat over Republican vote share on the national level. Predictions are obtained by averaging predictions for each state, weighted by its population size.

  • Techniques from social science-- like social-circle polling and Bayesian Truth Serum-- could render better election forecasts than traditional polls.
  • A cross-institutional group of social scientists applied these successfully during the 2016 US presidential election (results published in Nature Human Behavior). Now, they are using them again to forecast the November midterms for the House of Representatives.
  • Mirta Galesic, Cowan Chair of Human Social Dynamics at the Santa Fe Institute, is available to discuss the group's predictions based on the data so far.

Quotes

“None of the novel methods bring good news for Democrats.” -Mirta Galesic, Santa Fe Institute

“Overall, our predictions based on social circles and the Bayesian Truth Serum suggest more of a 'blue splash' than a 'blue wave.'” -Mirta Galesic, Santa Fe Institute

Further reading

Psychology Today "And the winner is..." (forthcoming)

Nature Human Behavior "Asking about social circles improves election predictions" (February 26, 2018)


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