- Study following Chicagoans over a 25-year period suggests over half of the city’s Black and Hispanic population, and a quarter of its White population, have seen a shooting by age 40.
- Researchers followed over two thousand people, with 50% of all the study’s participants witnessing a shooting.
- Average age when first witnessing a shooting was just 14 years old.
- Women only slightly less likely than men to witness shootings, despite men being far more likely to get shot.
- Such levels of violence exposure may cause chronic stress and knock-on health implications for populations in Chicago and elsewhere.
Newswise — A research project monitoring the experiences of Chicago residents from youth through early middle age in the 1990s has revealed that 56% of Black and Hispanic individuals throughout the metropolis observed at least one shooting prior to reaching the age of forty.
The incidence of gun violence exposure among White residents was lower than that of Black and Hispanic residents, at less than half the rate, but still significant: 25% of White Chicagoans had observed a shooting prior to reaching the age of forty.
Irrespective of racial categorization, half of the individuals included in the study had encountered gun violence before reaching the age of forty. On average, the age at which participants witnessed a shooting was only 14 years old.
-Among the study participants, over 7% of Black and Hispanic individuals had suffered a gunshot wound prior to reaching the age of forty, as opposed to 3% of White individuals. The average age for experiencing a gunshot injury was 17 years old.
The researchers also examined the locations of gun violence incidents* in the year prior to the most recent study interviews in 2021. The frequency of shootings occurring within a 250-meter radius of the residences of Black participants was more than 12 times greater than that of White participants. The incidence of shootings in proximity to the homes of Hispanic individuals was almost four times higher than that of White individuals.
The research team collected additional data from participants who had relocated out of the city, but it should be noted that the overwhelming majority of incidents of gun violence occurred within the city of Chicago.
Researchers contend that the ongoing stress of residing in an environment where the possibility of gun violence is ever-present is likely to exact a "cumulative physiological toll" on Chicago's populace, as well as individuals in urban areas throughout the United States.
The outcomes of the most recent study, which was overseen by a criminologist from the University of Cambridge in collaboration with researchers from Harvard and Oxford universities, have been published today in JAMA Network Open, a publication of the American Medical Association.
Dr. Charles Lanfear, lead author of the study and affiliated with the Institute of Criminology at the University of Cambridge, stated that previous research indicates that the chronic stress of being exposed to gun violence may lead to a range of negative outcomes, such as reduced academic performance in school-aged children and decreased life expectancy due to heart disease.
Lanfear expressed his surprise at the elevated rates of gun violence exposure uncovered by the study, stating, "We anticipated that levels of exposure to gun violence would be significant, but not to this extent. Frankly, our results are both jarring and troubling." He added that a significant percentage of Chicago's populace could be grappling with the psychological impact of having witnessed shootings and homicides, frequently from a very early age.
The data indicates that Black individuals, in particular, often reside in a distinct social milieu, where the probability of encountering gun violence on the streets close to their homes, and becoming victims themselves, persists into their middle age.
The Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN), which is a Harvard University research effort, has been monitoring the progress of thousands of children since they were initially surveyed in the 1990s, compiling information about their life experiences as they mature within the city or relocate elsewhere. Participants are drawn from households chosen at random from a predetermined list of eighty Chicago neighborhoods that were carefully selected to represent a range of racial and socioeconomic backgrounds that exist across the city.
The recent study focused on information obtained from a group of 2,418 participants who were born between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s, with equal numbers of males and females included in the sample.
According to Lanfear, the earliest study subjects, born in 1981, were entering adolescence in the early-to-mid 1990s, a period when lethal violence had surged in the United States. He stated that the nineties witnessed a convergence of a demographic bump with high levels of poverty and an increase in gang-related crime that was, in part, attributable to the crack epidemic.
Lanfear added that although the 1990s saw a significant increase in gun violence, there has been another upswing since 2016. In fact, rates of deadly shootings in Chicago have now exceeded those witnessed in the nineties.
Research indicates that men are more prone to engage in violent behavior, which is reflected in their higher risk of being shot by the age of 40. In contrast, women face a lower risk. The disparity between the sexes was not as pronounced for exposure to gun violence, as 58% of men and 43% of women had witnessed someone being shot.
Lanfear suggests that the long-term impact of firearm violence on women in cities across the US, including Chicago, may be significant. Given that women are also highly exposed to such violence, the chronic stress effects on them could be substantial.
According to Lanfear, the study's participants were selected from different parts of Chicago, and only a small proportion would be involved in any kind of criminal activity. Considering the high rates of women and children exposed to gun violence in the city, the majority of this exposure would be as bystanders in public spaces, such as streets or outside schools.
Lanfear emphasized that the implications of living in violent and traumatized neighborhoods would not be limited to Chicago, but could also be observed in numerous cities throughout the United States.
NOTES:
*Taken from the Gun Violence Archive, and not-for-profit organisation that collates data on gun violence drawn from sources including police departments, media and government agencies.
** Racial make-up of the study participants as follows: 890 Black respondents, 1146 Hispanic respondents, and 382 White respondents. The research looked at data from PHDCN study groups born in 1984, 1987 and 1996. The research team say they can safely estimate exposure to gun violence up to age 40 for the majority of the study participants. Even the younger group, now 27, are on track to compare with older cohorts, as most shootings are witnessed during youth.
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