ALBANY, N.Y. (Aug. 4, 2022) — After an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “above-average” 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with 14 to 21 named storms, including three to six major hurricanes.
Two months into the 2022 season, however, just three tropical storms have formed so far in the Atlantic basin. This marks the first time since 2017 that a hurricane has not developed in the Atlantic by Aug. 1.
Despite the slow start, experts, including those at the University at Albany, caution not to be lulled into a false sense of security.
According to Brian Tang, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at UAlbany, dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic has not been conducive for thunderstorm clusters to form into hurricanes.
He still expects this hurricane season to be a busy one.
“Typically, the Atlantic hurricane season does not get going in earnest until around now. August, September, and October are usually the busiest months of the hurricane season. One long-range outlook indicates that hurricane activity might start picking up toward the middle part of this month, so that would be right on cue,” Tang said.
“The switch can flip in a hurry once that dry, sinking air goes away, and conditions get more conducive for hurricane formation.”
Kristen Corbosiero, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, agrees that the large-scale factors are still in place for an active peak season over the next month.
“The dry, dusty air over the Atlantic has really squashed any disturbances coming off of Africa thus far. But things can change quickly, so stay tuned and be prepared.”
Corbosiero and Tang are available to offer insight on this year’s Atlantic hurricane season via phone or live/recorded interviews. UAlbany also has an on-campus television studio available for satellite interviews.
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