Based on fundamental economic and political variables political scientists regularly engage in election forecasting and have done so for every presidential election since 1992. Florian Hollenbach, assistant professor of political science at Texas A&M University, along with Washington University’s Jacob Montgomery have created a weighted average of the main political science election models to predict this years outcome. The weighting is based on past accuracy and uniqueness of the individual forecasts. According to this ensemble model, a generic Republican candidate would be a slight favorite against the Democratic candidate in a conventional election year. Yet, as we well know, this year is anything but conventional, which limits the predictive power of fundamental political science models. This forecasting model was created for and has been featured on Vox.
Prof bio: http://pols.tamu.edu/about-us/faculty-directory/florian-hollenbach/
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