Newswise — Northwestern University political science professors Alvin B. Tillery Jr., Jaime Dominguez and Laurel Harbridge are available to comment on the presidential election in its final stretch – early predictions, impact of Latino voters, what to make of tightening polls and more.
Alvin B. Tillery Jr. is an associate professor of political science. His research and teaching interests are in the fields of American politics and political theory. His research in American politics focuses on American political development, racial and ethnic politics and media and politics. He can be reached at (mobile) 574-514-5758 or [email protected].
Quotes from Professor Tillery:“As we move to the resolution of the 2016 general election, we can expect to see the Clinton campaign shift its focus to the ground game. Secretary Clinton should have a significant advantage on this front given the professional nature of her campaign and funding advantages. While the Clinton campaign is right to worry about the slight decline in African-American turnout in early voting in some of the important swing states, it is important to note that these declines might be a function of decreased opportunities to vote rather than soft enthusiasm for Clinton. Mr. Trump's reliance on the RNC's get-out-the-vote efforts may hurt him because those efforts must balance what they do for his losing campaign against what they do for important down ballot races.
“While Director Comey’s decision to send a letter to Congress stating that he was reopening the Clinton email investigation was a troubling breach of precedent, it will not be the factor that tips the election away from Clinton. On the contrary, the email investigation really only gives Mr. Trump traction with his base voters. Moreover, the vast majority of voters have decided whom they were going to vote for a long time ago. And, this is where Mr. Trump might have even more trouble. Some of the polls of early Republican voters in swing states show that as many as 30 percent have voted for Secretary Clinton. If this is true, Mr. Trump is in serious trouble, as Gov. Romney won 93 percent of Republican voters in 2012 and still suffered a loss to President Obama.
“My prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency on Nov. 8.” Jaime Dominguez is a lecturer in the department of political science and the Latino/a studies program. His research interests include race and ethnicity, coalition politics and urban and minority politics. He can be reached at (mobile) 312-375-4868 or [email protected].
Quote from Professor Dominguez:“The email scandal has put more of a burden on the Clinton campaign to heavily invest and focus on get out the vote efforts in battleground states like Florida, Colorado and Nevada. The sizable share of Latino voters in these states makes it even more incumbent that folks come out and vote. Florida alone, with 17 percent of the Latino share of the vote, and the least Democratic-leaning Latino voters in the nation, can determine the outcome of this election. And, of the newly registered Latinos, twice as many have registered as Democrats than as Republicans. The priority is clear. Also, even in a toss up state like North Carolina, where the Latino share is 3.4 percent, well-resourced efforts could make a difference in tilting the election towards Clinton.
“The Clinton campaign cannot take for granted that despite an overwhelming level of support by Latino voters, more than 77 percent according to latest Latino Decisions poll, voter apathy does not dampen turnout. This could be Hilary’s Achilles heel.” Laurel Harbridge is an assistant professor in political science. Her teaching and research focuses on partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics. She can be reached at (office) 847-467-1147 or l-[email protected]
Quote from Professor Harbridge:“The polls show a tightening race but what to make of this is far from clear. Do these changes indicate that voters are changing their minds a week out from the election? Will coverage of Clinton’s emails cost her support next week or is it a short-term adjustment in the polls? Should Democrats be worried about shy or hidden Trump supporters that are missed in the polls? Or is the tightening of the race partially an artifact of who is responding to the surveys?”
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