Mayo Clinic

妙佑医疗国际(Mayo Clinic) 的计算机模型表明,提高疫苗接种率是控制COVID-19疫情的关键的所在

罗切斯特,明尼苏达州— 妙佑医疗国际的数据科学家曾制作高精度计算机模型,用于预测美国COVID-19病例的趋势。目前,他们又开展了一项新的研究,研究结果表明,提高疫苗接种率对于减少病例和控制疫情至关重要。根据妙佑医疗国际学报(Mayo Clinic Proceedings)上发表的一项研究疫苗接种计划在明尼苏达州产生了显著的影响,控制住当前的阳性病例率不至发展为危急水平,从而令ICU病房不堪重负并导致更多的发病和死亡。

此项研究概述了疫苗接种趋势对疫情未来走向的重要性,以及妙佑医疗国际的COVID-19预测模型如何根据疫苗接种速度,评估未来趋势。妙佑医疗国际的研究人员估算,如果没有开发出疫苗,今年春天,明尼苏达州医院的ICU会达到住进超过800名患者的峰值。这些预测考虑了SARS-CoV-2病毒的新变异,以及当前的公共卫生措施和戴口罩的标准。

相比上一次病例激增的高峰时期(也就是去年12月1日)明尼苏达州的新冠患者ICU入住人数,如果没有开发出疫苗,预测的ICU入住率将超过这个数字的两倍。

作者表示:“很难弄清目前这种高传播率在多大程度上是由于病毒新的变异,而不是由于社会行为的变化。但不管是什么原因,在目前的环境下,若没有接种疫苗,很可能会导致迄今为止最大规模的病例激增。”

此项研究估算,如果到4月初,明尼苏达州的人口疫苗接种率达到75%,则到7月初,每10万名居民中的7天平均病例数、住院的COVID-19患者数量,以及ICU中的患者数量将大幅下降。作者称:“根据该模型,达到这种水平的疫苗接种率将可完全控制病例增长(即使在最近传播率上升的情况下也是如此),并可立即将病例和住院人数降至非常低的水平。”

此项妙佑医疗国际研究由Curtis Storlie博士Sean Dowdy医学博士负责,他们的团队开发了计算机模型,用于预测COVID-19对于入院率的影响,并帮助指导妙佑医疗国际应对疫情。妙佑医疗国际的预测模型也已与明尼苏达州的公共卫生部门领导人分享,用于为去年的关键决策提供信息支持。

如需妙佑医疗国际对于国内COVID-19趋势的预测,请访问妙佑医疗国际COVID-19资源中心在线查看。新型冠状病毒地图追踪工具提供以县为单位的COVID-19病例信息以及全国趋势。

在去年疫情爆发时,妙佑医疗国际的数据科学家开发了预测模型,用于评估COVID-19病例激增的时间和地点。该模型准确预测了COVID-19病例和住院激增的时间和幅度,使妙佑医疗国际能够做好准备,确保既能保障患者和工作人员的安全,又能提供最佳的护理。

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关于妙佑医疗国际(Mayo Clinic) 妙佑医疗国际是一所致力于创新并集临床实践、医学教育和科学研究为一体的非营利机构,以恻隐之心竭诚提供精湛医术和解决方案给需要治疗的每个人。请访问妙佑医疗国际新闻网,取得更多妙佑医疗国际的新闻信息。关于COVID-19的详情,包括妙佑医疗国际的冠状病毒分布图追踪工具含有的14天COVID-19趋势预报,请访问妙佑医疗国际COVID-19资源中心

媒体联系:请联系妙佑医疗国际媒体关系部:Sharon Theimer。邮箱:[email protected]

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