Rutgers University-New Brunswick

A New Way to Accurately Estimate COVID-19 Death Toll

Rutgers engineer’s mathematical model can predict cumulative deaths in U.S.

Newswise — A Rutgers engineer has created a mathematical model that accurately estimates the death toll linked to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and could be used around the world.

“Based on data available on April 28, the model showed that the COVID-19 pandemic might be over in the United States, meaning no more American deaths, by around late June 2020,” said Hoang Pham, a distinguished professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering in the School of Engineering at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “But if testing and contact tracing strategies, social-distancing policies, reopening of community strategies or stay-at-home policies change significantly in the coming days and weeks, the predicted death toll will also change.”

The model, detailed in a study published in the journal Mathematics, predicted the death toll would eventually reach about 68,120 in the United States as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19. That’s based on data available on April 28, and there was high confidence (99 percent) the expected death toll would be between 66,055 and 70,304.

The model’s estimates and predictions closely match reported death totals. As of April 29, more than 58,000 Americans had succumbed to COVID-19, according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Tracking Map.

The next steps include applying the model to global COVID-19 death data as well as to other nations such as Italy and Spain, both of which have experienced thousands of deaths due to COVID-19. The model could also be used to evaluate population mortality and the spread of other diseases.

SEE ORIGINAL STUDY




Filters close

Showing results

110 of 3368
Newswise: Woman recovers from potentially deadly stroke with timely treatment and determination
Released: 22-Sep-2020 5:20 PM EDT
Woman recovers from potentially deadly stroke with timely treatment and determination
University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston

During a time when many people are delaying appropriate health care due to fear of COVID-19, Patricia Miata, 58, says timely treatment is ultimately what saved her life after suffering a stroke.

17-Sep-2020 8:05 AM EDT
Kidney Damage From COVID-19 Linked to Higher Risk of In-Hospital Death
American Society of Nephrology (ASN)

In an analysis of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, kidney damage associated with the infectious disease was linked with a higher risk of dying during hospitalization.

access_time Embargo lifts in 2 days
Embargo will expire: 25-Sep-2020 12:15 AM EDT Released to reporters: 22-Sep-2020 4:00 PM EDT

A reporter's PressPass is required to access this story until the embargo expires on 25-Sep-2020 12:15 AM EDT The Newswise PressPass gives verified journalists access to embargoed stories. Please log in to complete a presspass application. If you have not yet registered, please Register. When you fill out the registration form, please identify yourself as a reporter in order to advance to the presspass application form.

Newswise: 243484_web.jpg
Released: 22-Sep-2020 3:45 PM EDT
When does a second COVID surge end? Look at the maths
University of Sydney

Mathematicians have developed a framework to determine when regions enter and exit COVID-19 infection surge periods, providing a useful tool for public health policymakers to help manage the coronavirus pandemic.

Newswise: 243527_web.jpg
Released: 22-Sep-2020 3:25 PM EDT
Web resources bring new insight into COVID-19
Baylor College of Medicine

Researchers around the world are a step closer to a better understanding of the intricacies of COVID-19 thanks to two new web resources developed by investigators at Baylor College of Medicine and the University of California San Diego.

Released: 22-Sep-2020 3:10 PM EDT
Nearly 20 percent of americans don't have enough to eat
Pennington Biomedical Research Center

More than 18 percent of U.S. adults do not know whether they will have enough to eat from day to day, and the numbers are worse for Hispanics, Blacks, people with obesity, and women, a new report shows.

Released: 22-Sep-2020 3:00 PM EDT
From pandemic to storms, virtual summit takes on issues facing small island states
University of Delaware

The Virtual Island Summit, held earlier this month and attended by 350 representatives of government, civil society, business and academics from more 60 different countries, addressed the urgency of identifying and implementing technology-based solutions to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Released: 22-Sep-2020 3:00 PM EDT
Patients With COVID-19 May Have Higher Risk of Kidney Injury
Rush University Medical Center

According to Jochen Reiser, MD, PhD, the Ralph C Brown MD professor and chairperson of Rush’s Department of Internal Medicine, patients with COVID-19 experience elevated levels of soluble urokinase receptor (suPAR), an immune-derived pathogenic protein that is strongly predictive of kidney injury.

Newswise: Johns Hopkins Researchers Offer Lessons Learned From Early Covid-19 Patients
Released: 22-Sep-2020 3:00 PM EDT
Johns Hopkins Researchers Offer Lessons Learned From Early Covid-19 Patients
Johns Hopkins Medicine

Using a combination of demographic and clinical data gathered from seven weeks of COVID-19 patient care early in the coronavirus pandemic, Johns Hopkins researchers today published a “prediction model” they say can help other hospitals care for COVID-19 patients — and make important decisions about planning and resource allocations.


Showing results

110 of 3368

close
1.50828