University of California, Irvine

Ending coronavirus lockdowns quickly can be more costly than relaxing them gradually

UCI, other researchers use disaster footprint model to assess COVID-19 supply chain impacts

Newswise — Irvine, Calif., June 3, 2020 — “We’re all in this together” is a commonly heard phrase during this global pandemic, as much of the world practices social distancing. And now researchers at the University of California, Irvine and other institutions have shown that there is some scientific validity to this assertion.

In a study published today in Nature Human Behaviour, Chinese, European, American and British researchers demonstrate that the number of countries implementing COVID-19 lockdown measures – and the duration of those efforts – have a greater influence on the gross domestic products of nations than the severity of the restrictions. They also found that easing containment edicts gradually leads to smaller economic losses than lifting them swiftly and then having to reintroduce closures.

Another key finding in the study is that smaller, poorer and less economically diverse countries – even those hit not as hard by the public health aspects of the pandemic – will bear a relatively larger brunt from economic damage caused by COVID-19.

“Because the economies of many developing countries are less immune to disruptions in the global supply chain, they are more severely impacted by the effectiveness – or ineffectiveness – of wealthier nations’ coronavirus countermeasures,” said co-author Steve Davis, UCI associate professor of Earth system science. “Countries not directly affected by COVID-19 could experience losses of more than 20 percent of gross domestic product due to declines in consumer demand and supply chain stoppages.”

Examples given in the paper for such economic impacts include Caribbean counties that rely on tourism and central Asian nations that count on energy exports. For instance, if global economies open and are later required to go back on lockdown, New Zealand’s food services sector and Jamaica’s hospitality industry could suffer losses of up to 90 percent.

The researchers used a “disaster footprint” economic model to assess potential global supply chain effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, analysing the impact of restrictions on 140 countries, including countries not directly affected by COVID-19.

They estimated that gradually easing lockdown measures over 12 months would lead to an economic cost at 40 percent of global gross domestic product, while lifting restrictions more quickly, over two months, and then introducing a second round of lockdowns in January next year would increase the cost to 60 percent.

“Pandemic economy management in one country is a public good that benefits other nations,” Davis said. “Our work clearly shows that a gradual approach to easing lockdowns is economically preferable to a swift return to pre-pandemic activities followed by another round of global lockdowns.”

Davis’ collaborator on the project, Dabo Guan of the department of Earth system science at Tsinghua University and the Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management at University College London, said: “Companies will survive the supply chain failures that lockdowns cause by relying on reserves of stock or finding new suppliers. If a second shock hits, reserves may be low and supply chains only recently repaired – making a new break much more costly.”

This project, which was funded by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, included researchers from Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; University College London; Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Shandong University, China; the Chinese Academy of Science; University of Edinburgh; Spark Ventures, London; and the University of Groningen, the Netherlands.

About the University of California, Irvine: Founded in 1965, UCI is the youngest member of the prestigious Association of American Universities. The campus has produced three Nobel laureates and is known for its academic achievement, premier research, innovation and anteater mascot. Led by Chancellor Howard Gillman, UCI has more than 36,000 students and offers 222 degree programs. It’s located in one of the world’s safest and most economically vibrant communities and is Orange County’s second-largest employer, contributing $5 billion annually to the local economy. For more on UCI, visit www.uci.edu.

Media access: Radio programs/stations may, for a fee, use an on-campus ISDN line to interview UCI faculty and experts, subject to availability and university approval. For more UCI news, visit news.uci.edu. Additional resources for journalists may be found at communications.uci.edu/for-journalists.

NOTE TO EDITORS: PHOTO AVAILABLE AT
https://news.uci.edu/2020/06/03/ending-coronavirus-lockdowns-quickly-can-be-more-costly-than-relaxing-them-gradually/

SEE ORIGINAL STUDY




Filters close

Showing results

110 of 4219
Released: 4-Dec-2020 4:30 PM EST
New review confirms disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on Black, Hispanic populations
Oregon Health & Science University

Black and Hispanic populations are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, according to a systematic review published this week.

Newswise: 250647_web.jpg
Released: 4-Dec-2020 4:05 PM EST
For nationalistic regimes, similar COVID-19 policies are the sincerest form of flattery
University of Texas at Arlington

Analysis from a University of Texas at Arlington assistant professor of public policy suggests that nationalistic governments around the globe are more likely to copy other nationalistic governments in responding to the current pandemic.

Released: 4-Dec-2020 3:15 PM EST
New Study Finds Once Hospitalized, Black Patients with COVID-19 Have Lower Risk of Death than White Patients
NYU Langone Health

A team of investigators at NYU Langone Health has found that once hospitalized, Black patients (after controlling for other serious health conditions and neighborhood income) were less likely to have severe illness, die, or be discharged to hospice compared to White patients.

Released: 4-Dec-2020 2:35 PM EST
AANA Commends CDC on Prioritizing COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution to Healthcare Personnel
American Association of Nurse Anesthetists (AANA)

The American Association of Nurse Anesthetists (AANA) commends the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC's) team of advisors on prioritizing frontline healthcare personnel and residents of long-term facilities for the first phase of the COVID-19 vaccine distribution.

Released: 4-Dec-2020 1:50 PM EST
COVID-19 in Victorian schools and childcare mainly driven by community transmission
Murdoch Childrens Research Institute

Analysis of Victorian data by the Murdoch Children's Research Institute suggests that COVID-19 cases in schools and childcare were mainly driven by community transmission

Released: 4-Dec-2020 12:20 PM EST
Identifying markers of COVID-19 infection using blood tests
University of Seville

Researchers from the Institute of Biomedicine of Seville (IBIS) have presented a study carried out in the Clinical Biochemistry Service of the Virgen del Rocío University Hospital which identifies the values for six biochemical biomarkers that indicate a patient may be infected with SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19).

Released: 4-Dec-2020 12:05 PM EST
Research confirms crucial monitoring assessment is effective for patients with COVID-19
University of Portsmouth

A combined research team from the Universities of Portsmouth and Bournemouth and Portsmouth Hospitals University NHS Trust has shown that an assessment score used to measure a patient's severity of illness can be applied to patients with Covid-19 without modification.

Newswise:Video Embedded flccc-alliance-calls-on-national-health-authorities-to-immediately-review-medical-evidence-showing-the-efficacy-of-ivermectin-for-the-prevention-of-covid-19-and-as-an-early-outpatient-treatment
VIDEO
Released: 4-Dec-2020 12:00 PM EST
FLCCC Alliance Calls on National Health Authorities to Immediately Review Medical Evidence Showing the Efficacy of Ivermectin for the Prevention of COVID-19 and as an Early Outpatient Treatment
Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC Alliance)

“Following the swi. review— and subsequent guidance— by the NIH and theCDC of Ivermectin, we expect that Ivermectin’s widespread, immediate use willallow for a rapid and safe re-opening of businesses and schools across the nation—and quickly reduce the strain on overwhelmed ICUs.” —FLCCC Alliance

Released: 4-Dec-2020 11:50 AM EST
Immunity passports: Ethical conflict and opportunity
University of the Basque Country

Immunity passports are a means of registering whether an individual has developed immunity to COVID-19 and is therefore unlikely to either catch or spread the disease.


Showing results

110 of 4219

close
1.86476