First Wave COVID-19 Data Underestimated Pandemic Infections

Advanced uncertainty quantification model based on fluid dynamic simulations of weather effects corrects COVID-19 pandemic's first wave data inaccuracies.
American Institute of Physics (AIP)

Newswise — WASHINGTON, June 22, 2021 -- Two COVID-19 pandemic curves emerged within many cities during the one-year period from March 2020 to March 2021. Oddly, the number of total daily infections reported during the first wave is much lower than that of the second, but the total number of daily deaths reported during the first wave is much higher than the second wave.

This contradiction inspired researchers from the University of Nicosia in Cyprus to explore the uncertainty in the daily number of infections reported during the first wave, caused by insufficient contact tracing between March and April 2020.

In Physics of Fluids, from AIP Publishing, Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis report using environmental fluid dynamics -- advanced computational multiscale multiphysics modeling and simulations -- to develop a constitutive relationship between weather seasonality conditions, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, and having two pandemic curves per year.

"We integrated a new physics-based relationship into a pandemic forecast model that accurately predicted, as it was later observed, a second COVID-19 pandemic wave within many cities around the world, including New York,” said Drikakis.

Most, if not all, of the data for the daily number of total new infections reported during the first wave of the pandemic were underestimated and used incorrectly.

"Within the city of New York, our work shows that the daily number of new infections reported during the first wave was underestimated by a factor of four,” Dbouk said. "So, the uncertainty of first-wave data mixed with second-wave data means the general conclusions drawn can be misleading, and everyone should be aware of this."

The researchers' work is the first known case of deriving an advanced uncertainty quantification model for the infected cases of the pandemic's first wave based on fluid dynamic simulations of weather effects.

"Our model is physics-based and can rectify first-wave data inadequacies by using second-wave data adequacy within a pandemic curve," said Drikakis. "Our proposed approach combines an environmental weather seasonality-driven virus transmission rate with pandemic multiwave phenomena to improve the data accuracy of statistical predictions."

In the future, the researchers' proposed uncertainty quantification model may help correct the worldwide total number of daily coronavirus infections reported by many cities during the first wave of a pandemic.

The article, "Correcting pandemic data analysis through environmental fluid dynamics," is authored by Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis. It will appear in Physics of Fluids on June 22, 2021 (DOI: 10.1063/5.0055299). After that date, it can be accessed at: https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0055299.

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

Physics of Fluids is devoted to the publication of original theoretical, computational, and experimental contributions to the dynamics of gases, liquids, and complex fluids. See https://aip.scitation.org/journal/phf.

SEE ORIGINAL STUDY



Filters close

Showing results

110 of 6109
Newswise: Researchers from Hackensack Meridian University Medical Center and Colleagues Develop New Model to Help Clinicians Predict Risk of Death in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19
Released: 2-Aug-2021 4:25 PM EDT
Researchers from Hackensack Meridian University Medical Center and Colleagues Develop New Model to Help Clinicians Predict Risk of Death in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19
Hackensack Meridian Health

New COVID-19 40-day mortality risk model, published in The Public Library of Science ONE, has potential for use in patient treatment planning, comparisons of therapeutic strategies, and public-health preparations.

Released: 2-Aug-2021 4:05 PM EDT
Town Hall on Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Immunosuppressed Patients Hosted by the American College of Rheumatology
American College of Rheumatology (ACR)

How effective COVID-19 vaccines have been in immunosuppressed and rheumatic disease patients remains an incompletely answered question. The American College of Rheumatology (ACR) has organized an expert panel to share what we are learning from real-world data and answer questions.

Released: 2-Aug-2021 2:00 PM EDT
CDC withdrawing its request for emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 PCR diagnostic test does not mean the test failed
Newswise

Social media is now rife with claims about why the CDC is withdrawing its request for emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 PCR diagnostic test after December 2021.

Newswise: Existing Drug Is Shown to Inhibit Virus That Causes COVID-19
Released: 2-Aug-2021 1:30 PM EDT
Existing Drug Is Shown to Inhibit Virus That Causes COVID-19
Argonne National Laboratory

Scientists using the Advanced Photon Source have discovered that a drug used to fight tumors in animals might be effective against many types of coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2.

Released: 2-Aug-2021 11:25 AM EDT
Award-Winning Journalist and CDC Principal Investigator to Serve as ACR Convergence 2021 Keynote Speaker
American College of Rheumatology (ACR)

Convergence 2021, the annual meeting of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR), returns to a virtual meeting platform Nov. 1 - 10. This year’s meeting will include presentations from over 320 clinicians, researchers and health experts, including this year’s keynote speaker, Dr. Seema Yasmin.

Newswise: COVID-19: Small Sign of Hope as Vaccinations Rise
Released: 2-Aug-2021 10:45 AM EDT
COVID-19: Small Sign of Hope as Vaccinations Rise
Cedars-Sinai

As COVID-19 cases spike in Los Angeles and throughout the Golden State, driven by the spread of the delta variant among unvaccinated residents, there may be a small sign of hope: More people are finally getting their shot.

Newswise: New Evidence Shows the COVID-19 Delta Variant Rapidly Rising
Released: 31-Jul-2021 10:05 AM EDT
New Evidence Shows the COVID-19 Delta Variant Rapidly Rising
University of Miami Health System, Miller School of Medicine

The University’s coronavirus sequencing effort uncovered that there are several variants present in its patient population, but Delta is chief among them and easily transmitted. And its presence is likely triggering a local surge in the infectious disease. University of Miami researchers and physicians are seeing firsthand how rapidly the Delta variant of COVID-19 is spreading through the local population.

Released: 30-Jul-2021 2:05 PM EDT
Thinking Impaired in 60% of COVID-19 Survivors, Study Finds
University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio

In a sample of over 400 older adults in Argentina who had recovered from COVID-19, more than 60% displayed some degree of cognitive impairment, a researcher from The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio reported July 29 at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference.

Released: 30-Jul-2021 11:50 AM EDT
Support for Government Mandates High and Increasing Over Time, Survey Finds
Rutgers University-New Brunswick

As the coronavirus Delta variant surges throughout the country and mask and vaccine mandates are being considered, a new national survey finds that almost 20 percent of Americans say it is unlikely that they will get the COVID-19 vaccine.


Showing results

110 of 6109

close
4.69409