Binghamton University, State University of New York

Researchers use machine learning to build COVID-19 predictions

Newswise — BINGHAMTON, NY -- As parts of the U.S. tentatively reopen amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the nation’s long-term health continues to depend on tracking the virus and predicting where it might surge next. Finding the right computer models can be tricky, but two researchers at Binghamton University, State University of New York believe they have an innovative way to solve those problems, and they are sharing their work online.

Using data collected from around the world by Johns Hopkins University, Arti Ramesh and Anand Seetharam — both assistant professors in the Department of Computer Science — have built several prediction models that take advantage of artificial intelligence. Assisting the research is PhD student Raushan Raj.

Machine learning allows the algorithms to learn and improve without being explicitly programmed. The models examine trends and patterns from the 50 countries where coronavirus infection rates are highest, including the U.S., and can often predict within a 10% margin of error what will happen for the next three days based on the data for the past 14 days.

“We believe that the past data encodes all of the necessary information,” Seetharam said. “These infections have spread because of measures that have been implemented or not implemented, and also because how some people have been adhering to restrictions or not. Different countries around the world have different levels of restrictions and socio-economic status.”

For their initial study, Ramesh and Seetharam inputted global infection numbers through April 30, which allowed them to see how their predictions played out through May.

Certain anomalies can lead to difficulties. For instance, data from China was not included because of concerns about government transparency regarding COVID-19. Also, with health resources often taxed to the limit, tracking the virus’ spread sometimes wasn’t the priority.

“We have seen in many countries that they have counted the infections but not attributed it on the day they were identified,” Ramesh said. “They will add them all on one day, and suddenly there’s a shift in the data that our model is not able to predict.”

Although infection rates are declining in many parts of the U.S., they are rising in other countries, and U.S. health officials fear a second wave of COVID-19 when people tired of the lockdown fail to follow safely guidelines such as wearing face masks.

“The main utility of this study is to prepare hospitals and healthcare workers with proper equipment,” Seetharam said. “If they know that the next three days are going to see a surge and the beds at their hospitals are all filled up, they’ll need to construct temporary beds and things like that.”

As the coronavirus sweeps around the world, Ramesh and Seetharam continue to gather data so that their models can become more accurate. Other researchers or healthcare officials who want to utilize their models can find them posted online.

“Each data point is a day, and if it stretches longer, it will produce more interesting patterns in the data,” Ramesh said. “Then we will use more complex models, because they need more complex data patterns. Right now, those don’t exist — so we’re using simpler models, which are also easier to run and understand.”

Ramesh and Seetharam’s paper is called “Ensemble Regression Models for Short-term Prediction of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases.”

Earlier this year, they launched a different tracking project, gathering data from Twitter to determine how Americans dealt with the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Filters close

Showing results

1120 of 2911
Newswise: Americans actively engaging in collectivism as financial buoy, experts say
Released: 13-Aug-2020 11:25 AM EDT
Americans actively engaging in collectivism as financial buoy, experts say
University of Notre Dame

Karen Richman, University of Notre Dame director of undergraduate studies at the Institute for Latino Studies, and her colleague, found that many people in the U.S. are relying on informal networks of family and friends to stay afloat in a recent study.

Newswise: 240116_web.jpg
Released: 13-Aug-2020 11:20 AM EDT
Researchers identify a protein that may help SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly through cells
Colorado State University

Eric Ross and Sean Cascarina, biochemistry and molecular biology researchers at Colorado State University, have released a research paper identifying a protein encoded by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, that may be associated with the quick spread of the virus through cells in the human body.

Newswise: 240119_web.jpg
Released: 13-Aug-2020 11:05 AM EDT
Public health consequences of policing homelessness
University of Colorado Denver

Two weeks ago, Colorado State Patrol troopers began clearing out nearly 200 residents from homeless encampments that surround the Colorado Capitol.

Released: 13-Aug-2020 10:35 AM EDT
Age discrimination seen @Twitter during #COVID19 pandemic
University of Michigan

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a perfect storm for age discrimination on social media.

Released: 13-Aug-2020 10:15 AM EDT
New COVID-19 Model Reveals Need for Better Travel Restriction Implementation
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI)

More strategic and coordinated travel restrictions could have reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the early stages of the pandemic, data confirms. The conclusion, available in preprint on MedRxiv, an online repository of papers that have been screened but not peer reviewed, stems from new modeling conducted by a multidisciplinary team of scientists and engineers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Released: 13-Aug-2020 10:05 AM EDT
Four National Organizations Provide Guidance on Maintaining Essential Operations as COVID-19 Pandemic Continues
American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)

The recent resurgence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has many states near or at bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, and health care facilities’ ability to meet the ongoing needs of surgical patients may be stressed by new influxes of COVID-19 patients admitted to health care facilities. To ensure health care organizations, physicians, and nurses remain prepared to meet these demands to care for patients who undergo recommended essential operations, the American College of Surgeons (ACS), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), Association of periOperative Registered Nurses (AORN) and American Hospital Association (AHA) have developed a Joint Statement: Roadmap for Maintaining Essential Surgery During COVID-19 Pandemic. This joint statement provides a list of principles and considerations to guide physicians, nurses, and hospitals and health systems as they provide essential care to their patients and communities. This joint statement builds on the Joint Statement:

Newswise: COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Tested at University of Kentucky Shows Positive Preclinical Results
Released: 13-Aug-2020 8:50 AM EDT
COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Tested at University of Kentucky Shows Positive Preclinical Results
University of Kentucky

PDS Biotechnology, a clinical stage immunotherapy company, has announced positive results from preclinical testing conducted at the University of Kentucky College of Medicine of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, PDS0203.

Released: 13-Aug-2020 8:45 AM EDT
Oxygen Therapy Harms Lung Microbiome in Mice
Michigan Medicine - University of Michigan

New mouse study on the lung microbiome could have implications for treatment of reduced oxygen levels in critically ill patients—including those with COVID-19.

Newswise:Video Embedded slac-scientists-invent-low-cost-emergency-ventilator-and-share-the-design-for-free
Released: 13-Aug-2020 8:45 AM EDT
SLAC scientists invent low-cost emergency ventilator and share the design for free
SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory

Researchers at the Department of Energy’s SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory have invented an emergency ventilator that could help save the lives of patients suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Newswise: 240021_web.jpg
Released: 13-Aug-2020 8:35 AM EDT
Scientists identify hundreds of drug candidates to treat COVID-19
University of California, Riverside

Scientists at the University of California, Riverside, have used machine learning to identify hundreds of new potential drugs that could help treat COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2.

Showing results

1120 of 2911