New Brunswick, N.J. (June 17, 2020) – Rutgers economist Bruce Mizrach is available to comment on a new Rutgers working paper that predicts a June 2020 tax revenue of $1.637 billion in New Jersey, a 5.18% increase compared to the levels in June 2019.
Mizrach said: “We can predict more than 75% of the change in year-over-year monthly tax revenue for New Jersey using three variables: the change in the number of locations reporting employee scheduling data to Homebase, a provider of software to help run small businesses, the number of monthly COVID-19 cases, and Google data on the mobility of cell phone users. The model is currently forecasting a strong V-shaped recovery in statewide tax revenue, for June despite the restrictions.”
“Our findings show that the progression of COVID-19 cases is fundamental to the state's economic recovery,” Mizrach continued. “Alternative data sources like location data from cell phones and payment data from cell phone apps can provide a real-time portrait of economic activity even when the economy is facing unusual challenges.”
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Mizrach is a professor in the department of economics at Rutgers-New Brunswick. He is the founder and editor of Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, which uses nonlinear analysis to understand economic and financial markets.
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