Rutgers scholar Katherine Ognyanova is available to discuss the latest survey data from The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States.
The group previously issued a report highlighting the competitive states with the biggest differences in Trump/Biden margin between all likely voters and likely voters who were not likely to vote by mail. The researchers updated the findings with new data collected from October 9-25: https://covidstates.org/blog/f/patience-in-pennsylvania
"The core finding from the initial report is unchanged,” the researchers said. “President Trump still leads in key states among voters who are not very likely to vote by mail, despite Biden leading many of these states overall. This is driven by Biden voters being significantly more likely to say they are either very likely to vote by mail or have already done so.”
“Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the states that will likely require the most patience over the course of this week, as they will not begin processing ballots received by mail until the morning of election day at the earliest (some counties in Pennsylvania will, at their discretion, not begin counting mailed ballots until Wednesday). While they may be able to count and report some share of ballots sent by mail on election night, it is entirely possible that these states -- especially Pennsylvania, which is closer in pre-election polling -- are not officially called for either candidate until later in the week.”
To view the full report and findings, click here.
Katherine Ognyanova, an assistant professor at Rutgers’ School of Communication and Information, does research in network science, computational social science, social technology, media, civic and political communication.
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