Expert Pitch
Virginia Tech

Summit with North Korea Not Likely a Make-or-Break Moment, According to Virginia Tech Expert

8-Jun-2018 4:30 PM EDT, by Virginia Tech

(June 8, 2018) -- It would be a mistake to view the June 12 summit with North Korea as a make-or-break moment, according to a Virginia Tech expert in nuclear politics. 

“What I mean by that is to not think it has to be either a resounding success or a dismal failure,” said Paul Avey, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science. “The reality will likely be more in the middle. Either modest progress or a setback that increases tensions but doesn't change the underlying strategic situation and make conflict inevitable.”

Avey argues the summit has the potential to be historic but we won't know for some time. If it goes well, he says it will be the beginning of a process of further negotiations which will ultimately have to result in concrete actions. 

 “If this puts in place a process that actually ends up with North Korea denuclearizing and allowing intrusive inspections down the road we may well look back on this as a very historic moment, on par or even beyond landmark arms control agreements in the past such as President Ronald Reagan's meetings with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1980s that culminated in the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty.”

 Quoting:

  • “Politically, President Trump has a lot staked on this summit and polling shows a majority of Americans approve of his decision to meet with Kim. A positive outcome would be a major foreign policy success that would provide his administration with momentum.”
  • “If things don't go well we might look back on this as historic for a different reason. If hardliners argue further negotiations are pointless and conflict occurs, we may see the failure of diplomacy here as setting the stage for that conflict. But we won't be able to make that judgment for a while either.”

Background Paul Avey is an expert in nuclear politics, U.S. foreign policy, and international relations theory. He teaches and has written extensively on world politics, national security, and national security strategy.

Read his full bio here.  

Schedule an interview

To secure an interview with Paul Avey, contact Bill Foy by email, or by phone at 540-998-0288.

Our studio

Virginia Tech's television and radio studios can broadcast live HD audio and video to networks, news agencies, and affiliates interviewing Virginia Tech faculty, students, and staff. The university does not charge for use of its studios. Video is transmitted by LTN Global Communications and fees may apply.

Filters close

Showing results

110 of 6020
Newswise:Video Embedded newswise-expert-panels-on-covid-19-pandemic-notable-excerpts-quotes-and-videos-available
VIDEO
Released: 18-Jun-2021 2:10 PM EDT
Newswise Expert Panels on COVID-19 Pandemic: Notable excerpts, quotes and videos available
Newswise

Newswise is hosting a series of Expert Panels discussion on unique aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This tip sheet includes some notable quotes from the panelists.

Released: 16-Jun-2021 1:10 PM EDT
Establishing Juneteenth As National Holiday is Opportunity to Create "New America"
Binghamton University, State University of New York

The Senate has unanimously passed a bill to establish Juneteenth, a holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States, as a federal holiday. This is an historic moment and an opportunity to create a “new America,” according to Anne Bailey, professor of history at Binghamton University, State University of New York and director of the Harriet Tubman Center for the Study of Freedom and Equity.

Newswise: Keeping the peace
Released: 14-Jun-2021 5:55 PM EDT
Keeping the peace
Washington University in St. Louis

New research from Washington University in St. Louis sheds light on how — and in what context — peacekeepers can contain the spread of violence in fragile post-conflict areas.

Released: 8-Jun-2021 12:45 PM EDT
2021 Gov Race is Currently Murphy’s to Lose
Rutgers University-New Brunswick

Governor Phil Murphy currently has a clear path to reelection victory, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

Newswise: Political science professors sign statement warning of threats to US democracy
Released: 8-Jun-2021 12:10 PM EDT
Political science professors sign statement warning of threats to US democracy
University of Notre Dame

Five University of Notre Dame professors who specialize in different areas of democracy studies recently signed a strong statement of concern issued by the think tank New America warning of the serious threats to democracy in the U.S.


Showing results

110 of 6020

close
1.58156