University of North Florida

University of North Florida Poll Reveals Hillary Clinton Holds Significant Lead in Democratic Primary Race

21-Oct-2015 8:05 AM EDT, by University of North Florida

A new University of North Florida statewide poll of Democratic primary likely voters reveals that if the primary were held today, the majority of respondents (54.6 percent) would vote for Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders landed second place with 15.9 percent, followed by Joe Biden at 11.2 percent. When asked who their second choice would be, 24.9 percent of Democratic primary likely voters would select Biden, closely followed by Sanders at 22.3 percent. Nineteen percent of respondents would opt for Clinton.

When asked what’s the most important problem facing the United States today, 32 percent of Democratic primary likely voters think it’s the economy, jobs or unemployment. For 13.6 percent of respondents, education is the most important problem, while 12.7 percent believe it’s health care.

An overwhelming majority (76.4 percent) of Democratic primary likely voters approve of the way President Barack Obama is handling his job, while 76.5 percent approve of the way Vice President Joe Biden is handling his job. For Marco Rubio, the responses shifted in the opposite direction, with only 22.1 percent approving of the way he is handling his job in the U.S. Senate.

When asked about candidate favorability, the vast majority of Democratic primary likely voters (78.7 percent) have a favorable view of Clinton. Not surprisingly, when Republican primary likely voters were asked the same question, only 10 percent held a favorable view of Clinton. Also, most Democratic primary likely voter respondents—80.8 percent—view Biden favorably.

The most important qualities that Democratic primary likely voters are looking for in the next president are honesty (19.4 percent), followed by leadership (8.2 percent) and integrity (4.5 percent). These results are strikingly similar to those from the Republican Primary likely voter sample.

When asked about the Democratic candidate debate that was held October 13, a slight majority of respondents watched at least some of it (38.3 percent said “yes,” 13.2 percent said “only some of it”). Of those who watched the debate, 64.7 percent identify as very liberal.

The Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL), through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at the University of North Florida, conducted the telephone survey. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs. Since its opening in 2001, the PORL has conducted over 120 research projects, which include focus groups, data collection, telephone, online and economic impact surveys. The PORL is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

Approximately 200 UNF students participated in the data collection. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Democratic likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections’ voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Respondents in the sample, when called, were asked for by their first and last name to ensure the interview was taken by the correct individual in the household.

For non-completes with a working residential or cell phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. nightly from October 14 through October 19 and include 632 adult registered Democrat likely voters in the State of Florida with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 percent. Stratified sampling, using the 10 designated market areas in Florida as sub groups, was used for geographical representation. Quotas were placed on each sub group to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. The total sample was weighted by age, gender and race to reflect the adult registered Democrat primary likely voter population in Florida.

Below are the full results. For more information or questions about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF assistant professor of political science, at (904) 620-1205 or m.binder@unf.edu.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

Survey Results All choices read to respondent except when specified by “Volunteer” (Vol)

Q6a. If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, for whom would you vote? [All choices randomized and read to respondent]


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=632

Joe Biden

11.2%

Hillary Clinton

54.6%

Lincoln Chafee

<1%

Martin O’Malley

<1%

Bernie Sanders

15.9%

Jim Webb

<1%

Somebody Else

3.8%

Don’t Know (Vol)

7.7%

No Answer (Vol)

5.5%

Q6b. Who would be your second choice? [All choices not read to respondent]


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=631

Joe Biden

24.9%

Hillary Clinton

19%

Lincoln Chafee

<1%

Martin O’Malley

2.8%

Bernie Sanders

22.3%

Jim Webb

1.3%

Somebody Else

3.5%

Don’t Know (Vol)

12.9%

No Answer (Vol)

12.6%

Q1. What do you think is the most important problem facing the U.S. today? [Answer choices randomized]


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=632

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N=641

Economy/ Jobs or Unemployment

32%

35.4%

Terrorism

11.4%

18.1%

Immigration

6.1%

13.5%

Education

13.6%

5.4%

Political Leadership (Vol)

2%

5.4%

Healthcare

12.7%

4.9%

Social Security

4.9%

3.7%

Morality/Values (Vol)

<1%

2.4%

National Security (Vol)

<1%

2.1%

National Debt (Vol)

<1%

2%

Environment

7.1%

1.8%

Crime

<1%

<1%

Something Else (Vol)

5.6%

3.6%

Don’t Know (Vol)

1.1%

<1%

No Answer (Vol)

1.5%

1%

Q3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?


Democratic Primary

Likely Voters

N=632

Strongly Approve

51.8%

Somewhat Approve

24.6%

Strongly Disapprove

7.3%

Somewhat Disapprove

14.2%

Don’t Know (Vol)

1.1%

No Answer (Vol)

1.1%

Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as vice president of the United States?


Democratic Primary

Likely Voters

N=632

Strongly Approve

48.3%

Somewhat Approve

28.2%

Somewhat Disapprove

5.1%

Strongly Disapprove

5.9%

Don’t Know (Vol)

8.5%

No Answer (Vol)

4.1%

Q5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Marco Rubio is handling his job as U.S. Senator?


Democratic Primary

Likely Voters

N=632

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N=630

Strongly Approve

7%

38.8%

Somewhat Approve

15.1%

35.7%

Somewhat Disapprove

18.9%

7.3%

Strongly Disapprove

41.3%

7.5%

Don’t Know (Vol)

15.2%

8.3%

No Answer (Vol)

2.5%

2.3%

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people, or if you have never heard of them.Q8. Donald Trump


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=622

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N=620

Favorable

19.7%

52.5%

Unfavorable

76.4%

39.9%

Never Heard of Him

<1%

<1%

Don’t Know (Vol)

2.5%

3.5%

No Answer (Vol)

<1%

3.6%

Q9. Jeb Bush


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=623

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N= 620

Favorable

28.7%

64.9%

Unfavorable

64.9%

28.8%

Never Heard of Him

1.4%

<1%

Don’t Know (Vol)

4.3%

4.6%

No Answer (Vol)

<1%

1.3%

Q10. Marco Rubio


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=624

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N= 621

Favorable

23.9%

81.1%

Unfavorable

64.7%

13%

Never Heard of Him

1.9%

<1%

Don’t Know (Vol)

7.8%

4.2%

No Answer (Vol)

1.8%

1%

Q11. Hillary Clinton


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=625

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N= 621

Favorable

78.7%

10%

Unfavorable

17.7%

87.7%

Never Heard of Her

<1%

<1%

Don’t Know (Vol)

1.7%

1.3%

No Answer (Vol)

1.2%

<1%

Q12. Joe Biden


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=623

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N= 621

Favorable

80.8%

25.2%

Unfavorable

11.1%

65.7%

Never Heard of Him

1.1%

1.1%

Don’t Know (Vol)

5.6%

5.7%

No Answer (Vol)

1.4%

2.3%





Q13. Can you tell me in a word or two, what is the most important quality that you’re looking for in the next president? [Answer Choices Not Read]

Democratic

Primary Likely

Voters

N=584


Republican

Primary Likely

Voters

N=619

19.4%

Honest

25.7%

8.2%

Leadership

10.4%

4.5%

Integrity

4.1%

2.6%

Intelligent

2.6%

2.9%

Strength

2.2%

<1%

Christian

1.7%

0%

Conservative

1.7%

2.6%

Experienced

1.4%

2.3%

Caring/Compassionate

<1%



Q14. We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Here is a five-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from very liberal to very conservative. Where would you place yourself on this scale?


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=619

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N= 617

Very Liberal

19%

1.2%

Slightly Liberal

24.2%

4.5%

Moderate; middle of the road

33%

18.2%

Slightly Conservative

10.8%

33.3%

Very Conservative

8%

41.6%

Don’t Know (Vol)

3%

1.1%

No Answer (Vol)

2%

<1%





In this next section, we will ask you some questions about immigration.

Q24. Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the United States? You can just tell me the number of your choice.


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N=598

Republican Primary Likely Voters

N= 601

Make them all felons and send them back to their home country.

7.9%

19%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time.

10.4%

23.4%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship.

4.1%

8.4%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines.

43.2%

38.5%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties.

28.6%

7.1%

Don’t Know (Vol)

3.1%

1.8%

No Answer (Vol)

2.8%

1.9%



Q31a. Did you happen to watch the debate among the Democratic candidates that was held Tuesday night, October 13th?


Democratic Primary Likely Voters

N= 585

Yes

38.3%

Only some of it (Vol)

13.2%

No

47.6%

Don’t Know (Vol)

<1%

No Answer (Vol)

<1%



Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Ideology by debate viewing


Very Liberal


Slightly Liberal

Moderate

Slightly/Very Conservative

Yes*

64.7%

58%

47.7%

41.4%

No

35.3%

42%

52.3%

58.6%

*includes watched only some of it



Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Vote Choice by Race and Ethnicity


White/Caucasian

African American


Hispanics/Latino


Joe Biden

8.2%

18.5%

8.4%

Hillary Clinton

54.3%

55.1%

61.9%

Lincoln Chafee

<1%

<1%

0%

Martin O’Malley

<1%

0%

<1%

Bernie Sanders

18.1%

11.1%

12%

Jim Webb

<1%

0%

1.6%

Somebody Else

3.3%

3.3%

7.5%

Don’t Know

7.5%

8.4%

6.3%

No Answer

7.2%

2.9%

1.4%



Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Vote Choice by Ideology


Very Liberal


Slightly Liberal

Moderate

Slightly/Very Conservative

Joe Biden

11.2%

10.8%

13%

11.4%

Hillary Clinton

55.5%

60.7%

54.7%

47%

Lincoln Chafee

0%

<1%

0%

2.2%

Martin O’Malley

0%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Bernie Sanders

28.8%

20%

10.9%

9.3%

Jim Webb

0%

0%

<1%

1.6%

Someone else (Vol)

1.2%

0%

4.8%

9%

Don’t Know (Vol)

2.3%

5.7%

11.4%

8%

No Answer (Vol)

<1%

2.2%

4.1%

10.8%





Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Immigration Position by Race


White/Caucasian


African American


Hispanic/Latino


Make them all felons and send them back to their home country.

8.7%

7%

2.7%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time.

10.4%

9.8%

5.2%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship.

4.1%

4.2%

5.2%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines.

43.2%

39.8%

63.3%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties.

28.1%

30.8%

21.9%

Don’t Know (Vol)

3.7%

2.7%

<1%

No Answer (Vol)

1.9%

5.6%

1.1%





Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Immigration Position by Ideology



Very Liberal


Somewhat Liberal

Moderate

Slightly/

Very Conservative


Make them all felons and send them back to their home country.

1.1%

4.1%

9%

16%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time.

6.7%

8.4%

15.5%

6.9%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship.

1.7%

8.3%

2.7%

4.5%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines.

39%

52.4%

40.7%

41.1%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties.

47.3%

20.3%

26.4%

25.3%

Don’t Know (Vol)

2.4%

3.8%

2.7%

2.3%

No Answer (Vol)

2%

2.8%

3%

3.9%



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