Thomas Holbrook can speak about voter behavior, political campaigns and forecasting national elections. He can also speak about what kind of impact a political convention can have on a presidential campaign both regionally and nationally. Holbrook is the author of “Do Campaigns Matter?” and “Altered States: Changing Populations, Changing Parties, and the Transformation of the American Political Landscape.”
In that light, says Holbrook, “the size of the bump doesn't matter so much as whether the candidate gets the bump he is expected to get.’’
“His core supporters will latch onto even the slightest bit of confirming evidence to back him on this issue.”