“I don’t predict a hurricane season. If a hurricane makes landfall near where you live, that is an active season for you,” says URI Professor of Oceanography Isaac Ginis. Yet predicting the severity of a hurricane can mean the difference between life and death, which is why Ginis makes it his business to predict the power of these ferocious storms. He developed a computer model so successful it was adopted by the National Weather Service. As one of the few scientists worldwide to show the role the ocean plays in hurricanes, Ginis essentially proved that ocean temperature is the most important factor in hurricane intensity and power. Ginis’s research efforts have resulted in pioneering advances in modeling of the tropical cyclone-ocean interactions that have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecast skills. His research group has contributed to the development of the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model used by the U.S. National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center for operational forecasting of tropical cyclones in all ocean basins. One of his team’s most recent projects, the Rhode Island Coastal Hazards, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction (RI-CHAMP) system, advances storm model capabilities and develops a real-time hazard and impact prediction system for hurricanes and nor'easters in Southern New England. The system provides actionable information to decision makers in helping to prepare for a storm. When it comes to forecasting hurricanes, the focus is usually on more tropical locales. However, Ginis says, “the farther they move to the north, the more complex they become.”

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URI oceanography professor’s computer modeling system to help keep R.I. officials ahead of strong storms

With hurricane season just starting, Rhode Island has a new storm modeling system that will provide state and local emergency management officials with up-to-the-second information on wind strength and flooding to allow them to make real-time decisions. 
28-Jun-2023 02:05:46 PM EDT

URI leads team of researchers awarded $1.5 million NOAA grant

Researchers at the University of Rhode Island and Penn State University have been awarded a four-year, $1.5 million grant through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to study the effects of sea level rise and how it may exacerbate the impact of extreme weather.
01-Oct-2021 11:50:55 AM EDT

Expert on hurricane forecasting models


20-Jul-2021 09:35:20 AM EDT

“We’re working to improve existing models and create new modeling capabilities to address concerns about coastal flooding due to storm surge, inland flooding due to heavy rainfall and the challenges of predicting winds over land,” Ginis said.

"Typically, emergency management agencies develop hurricane preparedness and response plans based on historic hurricanes," Ginis said. "But as we have seen in recent storms, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017 that produced enormous rainfall, a hurricane may do damage through means that are not anticipated by the public and emergency managers and may be very different from previously experienced storms."

- Future Hurricane Could Loop Around and Make Landfall Twice in the U.S., Causing Catastrophic Flooding and Storm Surges

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