The greater the number of people who go out drinking on New Year's Eve, the more likely the highway death toll will climb.
Michael S. Garr has studied drunken driving accidents, sobriety checkpoints and alcohol use in social settings. To him, it's simple.
"To the extent that the millennium hoopla causes more people to go out, we can anticipate a higher than normal highway death toll," says Garr, associate professor of sociology at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, PA.
Another school of thought is that the millennium celebration is falling flat and that people are planning to stay home in larger numbers. If that happens, Garr notes that it's obvious that the highway fatality numbers will decline.
A total of 545 people died on the nation's highways between 6 p.m., December 31, 1997 and 6 a.m. January 5, 1998, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Alcohol was involved in just about half of the fatal crashes.
Despite New Year's reputation for revelry, Garr points out that the July 4th weekend tends to yield more highway fatalities. "Statistics for 1982 through 1998 from the NHTSA show that more people were killed during the Fourth of July periods than during the New Year's periods if you look at the number of fatalities per day of the holiday," he says.
"The data can be misleading," he notes. In 1998, for example, the highway death toll for the July 4th weekend was 478 nationally with half being alcohol-related compared to 545 for New Year's holiday. However, the July 4th weekend was three days long while the New Year's weekend was four days long. Looking at the daily fatality rate, 159 died per day during the weekend of July 4th while only 136 were killed daily on the New Year's weekend. For both weekends, about 50 percent of the fatalities were alcohol-related."
The problem of drinking and driving will remain as long as America depends so heavily on private forms of transportation, Garr believes.
"We need not blame the `killer drunk'," he says. "For too many law-abiding Americans the celebration of a holiday puts them at risk to commit a crime. The `killer drunk' may just be an unfortunate person who participated in an activity that many others were also doing.
"The fact that we have been driving, that we have to drive to get our cars and family home, and the fact that we have probably driven a car under the influence in the past without harm to ourself or others means that we will venture out on the roads again under the influence.
"It's not because we are not thinking. It's because we are thinking. It's a matter of practical circumstance butting heads with what we also know is morally and legally wrong."
Statistically, at least, there was improvement in alcohol-related fatalities in 1998. Booze was a factor in 38.4 percent of U.S. traffic deaths during the year, a record low, according to the NHTSA. For holidays, however, the alochol-related fatality rate rises to 49.6 percent.
If you would like to speak with Dr. Garr, feel free to contact him at 570-40804042 (office) or 570-823-9163 (home). His e-mail address is [email protected].
You can also contact Dick Jones Communications at 814-867-1963 for more information.
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