Newswise — Andrew Dowdle, assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, uses data from the last eight presidential elections to examine the primary period. He's been following the 2008 candidate field, and calls it "the most interesting set of presidential nominees we've had in decades."
Dowdle notes that to open a margin over Barak Obama, Hillary Clinton will need to pick up a couple of large states in the March 4 primary. He finds correlations to the 1984 election, in which super-delegates played a large role, and Walter Mondale picked up key industrial states to secure the nomination.
Running mates: While it is too soon to tell with the Democrats, Dowdle says, John McCain's vice presidential choice "will be driven by the need to unify the Republican Party."
"In the last few decades, vice presidents have been playing a bigger role, so the 'personal equation' comes into play. The animosities we've seen during the campaign on both the Republican and Democratic side mean it's less likely the party's candidate will chose their primary opponent to be vice president," Dowdle says.
Dowdle's research has included studying the role of finances and fundraising in the primary period and issues in forecasting nominations. He is available to comment on the 2008 election in context of previous presidential elections.
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