Expect Active U.S. Military During Next Presidency, No Matter Who is Elected

Newswise — No matter who is eventually elected President, don't expect the trend of American military incursions overseas to subside during the next presidency, says Dr. Jack Holmes, a political scientist at Hope College in Holland, Mich.

U.S. foreign policy is cyclical, according to Holmes. It moves from periods of introversion to extroversion with predictable regularity. The forces behind this cycle limit the range of policy choices available to a President, regardless of campaign rhetoric.

"Indeed, the times seem to make the person at least as much as the person makes the times," Holmes says. So even if the Democrats win the White House and end the Iraq war as promised, expect the U.S. military to remain active.

"The return to introversion"¦is most likely to occur around 2016. The war in Iraq may be nearing an end, but America's involvement in global affairs is not."

Holmes theory, which he calls the "mood/interest theory of American foreign policy," states that there is a constant tension between the American electorate's appetite (or lack thereof) for foreign incursion and the nation's need to tend to its strategic interests overseas. This tension causes predictable cycles of extroversion and introversion. Extrovert phases, Holmes observes, generally last about 27 years, while introvert phases have a 21-year lifespan.

We are currently in year 19 of an extrovert phase that began with the first Gulf War in 1989.

So what might our next president's foreign policy look like? Holmes points to the latter part of the last U.S. extrovert phase " 1940-67 " for answers.

While campaigning in 1960, John F. Kennedy promised a departure from Eisenhower's rigid approach to fighting the Cold War.

"As a result of the Kennedy victory, American foreign policy switched to a flexible response shortly after he took office in 1961," Holmes says. "Problem was that flexible response led to more, not less, American involvement."

The Bay of Pigs, Cuban Missile Crisis, Berlin showdown and the increased American involvement in Vietnam all took place between 1961 and 1962. After that, President Johnson pushed American involvement in Vietnam to full throttle, arguing that such action was crucial to meet the challenge posed by the spread of Communism.

Holmes sees the possibility for a similar throttle-up in the coming years.

"In 2008, the U.S. remains under challenge no matter what is done in Iraq, just as the U.S. remained under challenge in 1961. Neither party can pull out of the challenge presented by Al Qaeda in 2008. Interests must be met and, if the past can be a guide, the most extreme time is yet to come at the end of the current extrovert phase, perhaps in a conflict different from the current one in Iraq."

Holmes believes that dealing effectively with the threat of terrorism in this current extrovert cycle is crucially important. When a challenge takes more than one cycle to deal with, things get messy.

"If it (terrorism) is not dealt with in this cycle, when the U.S. asserts the protection of its interests in the next extrovert phase " likely in the mid-2030s " there could be a possibility of another system war. It will be difficult to avoid a major conflict in two decades unless action is taken to resolve the terrorist threat."

Holmes presented his thoughts on the future of American foreign policy in March at the annual International Studies Association convention in San Francisco.