Newswise — The coordinated luxury hotel bombings in Jakarta come against a backdrop of declining Indonesian terrorism, according to a new report from the University of Maryland-based National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The report draws on current START research projects, including data from its comprehensive Global Terrorism Database.
"Since 2001, terror attacks in Indonesia have been declining steadily, at least in part a reflection of the government's counter-terrorism activities," says Gary LaFree, the University of Maryland researcher and professor who created the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and directs the START Consortium, a DHS-funded Center of Excellence. "You can't draw trend lines from a single incident, but it does suggest all may not be so quiet on this front."
In 2007, the latest figures in START's database, there were just two attacks compared to 84 in 2001 - the peak year for Indonesian terrorism since 1970 where START's database begins. In 2002 terror incidents dropped nearly 67 percent, and have steadily declined since then.
Among the research numbers collected by START from its GTD database:
"¢ There were 421 terrorist attacks in Indonesia between 1970 and 2007: The vast majority (92%) of the terrorist activity in Indonesia has happened since 1994. From 1995 to 2007, there has been an average of 30 events per year, although the frequency of attacks has been declining since 2000.
"¢ Almost one-third of Indonesian terrorist attacks were carried out as part of multiple or coordinated attacks. This is considerably higher than the prevalence of coordinated attacks globally, which is 12.5%
"¢ Nine of the 421 attacks (2.1%) in Indonesia between 1970 and 2007 were suicide attacks. This prevalence is slightly higher than that of suicide attacks globally, which is 1.5%.
"¢ In Indonesia, the most common attack type is bombing (33%) and explosives are the most frequently used weapon (37%). Private citizens are most frequently targeted (23%); businesses are targeted in 10% of terrorist attacks in Indonesia.
"¢ Among those incidents in Indonesia for which the perpetrator is known, the most active has been Free Aceh Movement (GAM), responsible for 113 terrorist attacks in the country. GAM was most active in 2001, taking responsibility for 58 incidents that killed 65 people in that year alone. GAM signed a peace accord with the Indonesian government in 2005 and has not engaged in reported terrorist activity since then. More information on GAM is available at http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id=3600
"¢ The leading perpetrator of fatal terrorism in Indonesia this decade is Jemaah Islamiya (JI). JI is responsible for 11 terrorist attacks in the cities of Jakarta, Kuta, Tentena, Jimbaran, and Denpasar. Together, these attacks have resulted in the deaths of 273 people. Notably, JI was responsible for a Bali nightclub attack in 2002 that resulted in 202 deaths and 150 wounded, as well as the previous attack on the JW Mariott in Jakarta in 2003 which resulted in 15 deaths and 149 wounded.
Bali 2001: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=200210120005
Jakarta/Marriot 2003:
http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=200308050001
INDONESIAN PUBLIC OPINION AND TERRORISM
With funding from START, the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) conducted surveys of 1000 respondents in Indonesia in 2007 and in 2008 to gain insights into perspectives towards terrorism as well as towards the United States. Findings include:
"¢ 72% of Indonesian respondents found terrorism a "very big problem" in their country;
"¢ In 2007, 3% of Indonesian respondents indicated approval of violent attacks on U.S. civilians working in Islamic countries. By 2008, support for this sentiment had doubled to 6%.
This trend is also reflected in questions regarding attacks on U.S. troops around the world: Opposition to attacks in Iraq dropped 19 points (from 61 to 42%) while approval rose nine points (from 17 to 26%) between 2007 and 2008. For U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Indonesian disapproval of attacks dropped from 58 to 42 percent and, for troops in the Persian Gulf, disapproval dropped from 55 to 40 percent.
A full report on these findings is available at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/feb09/STARTII_Feb09_rpt.pdf. Additional START research on views toward the Caliphate in Indonesia, by Douglas McLeod and Frank Hairgrove, as available at http://www.start.umd.edu/start/publications/research_briefs/20080131_Caliphate_and_Radicalization.pdf.
START CENTER AND THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATABASE
The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is a U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence based at the University of Maryland. START uses state"of"the"art theories, methods, and data from the social and behavioral sciences to improve understanding of the origins, dynamics, and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. Additional information on START is available at: www.start.umd.edu.
The GTD is an open-source database including information on terrorist events around the world from 1970-2007. Unlike many other event databases, the GTD includes systematic data on domestic as well as transnational and international terrorist incidents that have occurred during this time period. For each GTD incident, information is available on the date and location of the incident, the weapons used and nature of the target, the number of casualties, and—when identifiable—the perpetrator. The GTD's web interface is available at www.start.umd.edu/gtd.
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