Newswise — North Korea's potential missile test may be an experimental satellite launch -- or the whole thing could be a bluff, said a Gettysburg College physics professor who served on the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency from 1994 to 1995 and the Bureau of Nonproliferation at the Department of State from 2000 to 2001.
"North Korea has always used 'brinkmanship' whenever it feels it is being ignored," Prof. Peter Pella said. "The correct response is to renew vigorous efforts to bring North Korea back to the six-party talks among nations."
Little is known about the Taepodong-2 missile and it has never been tested, Pella said. United States intelligence experts claim that a three-stage Taepodong-2 missile could reach parts of the West Coast. The North Korean's last missile test in 1998 was a three-stage Taepodong-1 missile, which was intended to put a satellite in orbit but the third-stage failed to ignite, Pella said.
"It is unclear as to the motives of the North Koreans," Pella said. "This test may be another attempt to launch a satellite. If so, it would demonstrate their ability to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that could be armed with a nuclear warhead, a clear signal to the U.S. of its military might. It might also be an attempt by North Korea to develop a commercial satellite launch service to increase revenue flow."
It may also be a bluff to encourage the U.S. to make additional concessions so that North Korea would return to the stalled six-party talks between North Korea, South Korea, United States, China, Russia, and Japan, Pella said. The talks have been on hold since the fall when the United States Treasury Department sanctioned several North Korean financial institutions for their involvement in counterfeiting U.S. dollars.
Pella served as the William Foster Fellow Arms Control Specialist for the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency from 1994 to 1995 and again as a Foster Fellow from 2000 to 2001 in the Bureau of Nonproliferation at the Department of State.
In addition to teaching at Gettysburg College, Pella has also served as a member of the physics faculty at Hendrix College, the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, and Rensselear Polytechnic Institute. He has served since 1984 as a research scientist in the nuclear physics group at Kent State University, where he also served as a research assistant for a National Science Foundation-funded program in medium energy nuclear physics and as a teaching assistant.
Gettysburg College is a highly selective four-year residential college of liberal arts and sciences. With approximately 2,600 students, it is located on a 200-acre campus adjacent to Gettysburg National Military Park in Pennsylvania. The college was founded in 1832.
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