Energy: The Tipping point for U.S. – China Relations, Study Finds

Newswise — Energy could very well become the tipping point that sours or improves relations between the Chinese and the United States, according to recent research in the Asian Politics and Policy journal this month. The study, which examines strategies employed by the Chinese to procure energy from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, signals that while the United States should not fear China’s actions, it’s best to keep a close watch on what the Chinese are doing. “The situation is fluid and could either go toward a path of conflict or cooperation,” said Manochehr Dorraj, professor of political science at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth and the study’s lead author. China’s strategy in the Middle East to gain energy is really three-fold: cultivate as many dance partners as possible, help energy-producing countries develop infrastructure, pursue a policy of “offend no one” and “non-interference” and never miss an opportunity to highlight the differences between China and U.S. “China cannot use a go-at-it alone strategy when developing energy for the most populous nation in the world. It must be a friend to all, and that means navigating the somewhat-choppy political waters in different nations such as Iran,” said Dorraj. Downstream joint ventures are one way that China has had success with major energy-producing nations. These partnerships present a win-win strategy for developing countries. Recently Aramco Chief Executive Khalid Al-Falih said “we don’t consider ourselves simply as sellers of oil to China, but rather strategic partners.” “Beijing has openly stated its desire to cooperate with key energy producers in a matter that is mutually beneficial, and it has gone about its business without the use of force and without imposing its ideology on the region. At the same time, most Middle Eastern states value China’s willingness to pay premium prices for their oil and gas and sign long term contracts, the array of low-cost goods and services and the less problematic nature of working with Beijing, a relationship that comes with significantly less political baggage than dealing with the United States or European Union,” said Dorraj. The Chinese do find ways to deliberately distance themselves from the United States. After the assassination of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, tensions between the United States and Pakistanis weren’t great. At this time, many questioned Pakistan’s commitment to the United States – some reports even went so far to say that Pakistan was harboring terrorists. Beijing, however, praised Islamabad’s efforts at fighting terror and announced it was providing 50 additional fighter jets to the Pakistani air force. “China’s position was the opposite of the U.S. response, which included heavy criticism of Islamabad and the threat of reducing or eliminating U.S. aid to Pakistan. As part of its energy strategy, Beijing seeks opportunities like this to exploit frayed U.S. relations in the region and present itself as “a more reasonable alternative” to Washington,” said Dorraj. The key questions are if China is a friend to all and its rise is “peaceful” and it aspires for “a harmonious world”, what will the relationship look like between China and the United States? “As global demand for energy continues to increase and supplies become tighter, the United States may have no choice but to seek greater quantities from the Middle East. When that time comes, China’s position in the region may be even stronger, which will result in one of three scenarios: The United States will have to look elsewhere for energy (currently, Canada, Mexico and Venezuela are the top exporters of oil to US), China and the United States could cooperate in the Middle East to deliver greater quantities of energy to the global market, or competition between the two major energy consumers could intensify to the point of conflict,” said Dorraj. What cannot be discounted are the current partnerships between China and the United States that serve U.S. interests in two fundamental ways. First, the more money China invests in exploration of Middle Eastern oil and gas, the more it expands availability in the global energy markets, thus preventing sharp price hikes that are detrimental to economic interests of major consumer nations such as US and China. The United States also benefits from the output of China’s energy acquisitions in that countless products exported from China are a mainstay in U.S. lifestyle. China also benefits from the U.S. in that it currently relies on the U.S. to safeguard shipping lanes that come out of the Persian Gulf, thus ensuring the security of energy supplies that China needs urgently to sustain its impressive economic rise. Thus, China constantly attempts to “balance the pursuit of its energy interests with the major regional producers on the one hand and the United States on the other. If we consider the significant bilateral US-China relations, the delicacy of this balancing act involving both rivalry and competition as well as cooperation becomes even more paramount.” As long as this symbiotic relation of mutual dependency continues, cooperation and coexistence would persist. However, should China’s tendency to sign long-term contracts diminish US access to the energy sources of the region, the possibility of conflict cannot be ruled out. What our study of China’s strategy for energy acquisition in the Middle East reveals, said Dorraj, is that “a great power realignment in the Middle East is already underway that has the potential for cooperation as well as conflict. The key political challenge before the US government is how skillfully it comes to terms with the rise of China and its expanding influence in the Middle East and beyond.” CONTACT: Manochehr Dorraj, [email protected], 817-257-6097 (office) Dick Jones Communications helps TCU with some of its public affairs work.