Estimating Number of Radiation Therapy Patients to Prevent Staffing Shortages

Researchers have developed a method for estimating the number of prostate cancer patients who will need radiation therapy, according to the January 2003 issue of the International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics, the official journal of ASTRO, the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology.

Providing radiation therapy to patients requires specialized personnel, equipment and facilities. By accurately predicting not only the future incidence of prostate cancer, but also how many cases will require radiation therapy, the medical community can be well prepared to meet future healthcare needs.

Researchers began with a systematic review of medical literature to identify indications for radiation therapy for prostate cancer patients. An indication is defined as a set of clinical parameters that suggest that radiation therapy is necessary, expedient or advisable. Next, they used an epidemiologic approach to estimate the incidence of each indication for radiation therapy in a typical North American population of prostate cancer patients.

It was predicted that about 61 percent of all prostate cancer cases in North America will develop one or more indications for radiation therapy at some point in the course of the illness. Of all prostate cancer patients, about 32 percent should receive radiation in their initial treatment while 29 percent should receive radiation later to treat recurrence or progression of the disease. The proportion of cases that ever require radiation therapy is risk-grouping dependent -- about 44 percent in low-risk disease, 69 percent in intermediate-risk disease and 79 percent in high-risk loco-regional disease. For metastatic disease, the predicted rate was 66 percent.

"This method provides data that can be used in the long-term planning of radiation services as well as in an analysis of whether certain patient populations have adequate access to radiation therapy," said William J. Mackillop, M.B., Ch.B., F.R.C.P.C, of the Division of Cancer Care and Epidemiology at the Queen's University Kingston Regional Cancer Center, and co-author of the study. "We are currently working on applying this method to other forms of cancer, with the long-term goal of estimating the overall need for radiation therapy in the North American cancer population as a whole. Armed with that information, we can make sure that sufficient resources are in place to appropriately serve cancer patients."

The American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology is the largest radiation oncology society in the world, with 7,000 members who specialize in treating patients with radiation therapies. As a leading organization in radiation oncology, biology and physics, the Society's mission is to advance the practice of radiation oncology by promoting excellence in patient care, providing opportunities for educational and professional development, promoting research and disseminating research results and representing radiation oncology in a rapidly evolving socioeconomic healthcare environment.