Newswise — This weekend’s escalated fighting in Libya was bound to happen and it appears that Moammar Gadhafi’s days in reign might be numbered, says Nikolaos Zahariadis, Ph.D., political science professor and expert on Middle East relations.
But after Libya’s leader is gone will the people be any better off? Zahariadis says, likely not. At least, not right away.
“Who is going to take his place,” he asks. “It’s not clear in Libya and even less in Syria.”
With Libya’s future leadership up in the air, it could add to their problems, Zahariadis says. Just look at what’s happening in Egypt.
“The military does not have a handle on the situation,” Zahariadis says. “It’s a sad story.”
Many Egyptians expected things to magically get better with their political leader Hosni Mubarak gone, but that didn’t happen.
“They need to lower their expectations or they will be inevitably crushed.”
Rebuilding after Mubarak’s decades-long reign will likely be a slow process that should be handled strategically, he says.
“Putting Mubarak to trial is cathartic but it does not solve their problems.”
The question now is can Egypt get their economy back, Zahariadis says. And that depends on the tourists.
The fighting in the Middle East makes potential tourists uneasy, he says. The unrest reflects upon the entire region. “It doesn’t matter if it is in Syria, Jordan. It hurts them all.”
To complicate things further, the events in Libya will also have a dramatic effect on events in Syria, Zahariadis says. Despite President Bashar al-Assad’s bravado, if Gadhafi falls, the Syrians will be emboldened to think al-Assad is next.
And, with much of the Middle East experiencing a changing of the guard, this could also result in Israel's feeling very insecure, he says. Although for many years the state was surrounded by the Libyan and Syrian dictators, it knew how to deal with them, Zahariadis says. Add that to Israel's already restive environment and "things are likely to get worse before they get any better."
So, on the eve of what could be the end of a Gadhafi-led Libya, maybe the people there can take a look at what’s going on in Egypt and the other potential domino effects and start preparing for their future now.
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