MBA Students Forecasting Global Trends in On-Line Game Predict Rise in U.S. GDP and Slump in Hong Kong's Stock Market by Year-End
SAN FRANCISCO--Students in Professor Dave Raphael's MBA 670 Global Trends class at the University of San Francisco McLaren School of Business predict the U.S. GDP will rise faster in 1997 than it did in 1996, and they believe Hong Kong's stock market will stumble by the end of the year.
Chances are they are right. Students in last year's class correctly predicted the re-elections of U.S. President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin; the success of the Disney-ABC merger as witnessed by its rising stock prices; and the de evaluation of the Japanese yen by year's end.
So far this year, they have accurately predicted that the Dow Jones would not break through 8000 until after July 1; that increases in Microsoft's market value would surpass changes in Netscape; and that the Federal Reserve would raise its Federal Funds rates by one-quarter of a percentage in March to 5.5 percent, but would not raise them during the month of June.
Students did this by playing Raphael's Global Trends Game on the Internet. Tracking key corporate, economic, and international trends, students buy and sell mythical shares of selected predictions. Each is allotted 100,000 shares, and may buy 30,000 shares of any given trend. Should the trend come true within the specified time frame, they receive the double number of shares invested; if they are wrong, they lose their investment.
Students in Raphael's MBA 670 class have been required to track global trends as part of their course work since 1991. He designed the game last year with the help of students, who submitted more than 100 trends. The game, which offered 18 predictions, was played by more than 400 USF students and alumni in the U.S., Australia, Britain, Canada, Ireland, Japan, Switzerland. They bought a total of 11.8 million shares.
This year's game, which offers 24 trends, is open to MBA students across America. More than five million global trends were purchased during the first six months. The game has been endorsed by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) and the Silicon Valley Roundtable, who will offer cash prizes to the top four winners. Raphael is a NABE member and president of the Roundtable.
The Global Trends Game can be found at the following sites:
-- http://usfca.edu/mclaren/MCL-main.html
-- http://www.marcar.com/gtrends.html
-- http://www.nabe.com
Below is a summary of some of the 1997 trends:
Corporate Trends:
* Will Netscape outsurf Microsoft in market value by mid-year 1997?
* Will the 1997 Disney-Pixar movie outperform Toy Story?
* Will the British Airways-American Airlines Alliance fly in 1997?
* Will Apple Computer be acquired by another firm in 1997?
Economic/Financial Trends:
* Will the Dow Jones rise above 8,000 before July 1?
* Will the U.S. Feds raise short term interest rates before April 1?
* Will the U.S. gross national product grow faster or slower in 1997
compared to 1996?
International Trends:
* Will Hong Kong's stock market rise or fall after July 1?
* Will Boris Yeltsin still be president of Russia by the end of 1997?
* Will the Japanese stock market rise or fall relative to January's
level during 1997?
* Will Japanese goods be cheaper in the United States by Christmas
season?
* Will Great Britain finally join the Economic Union.
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Gry Moren
News Writer
USF Public Affairs
(415)422-2687
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