Eugene Gholz, associate professor of political science, University of Notre Dame
Eugene Gholz, associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on the Strait of Hormuz, previously served as a senior advisor at the Pentagon. Gholz can comment in regard to the deployment of U.S. troops to deter Iran from seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Gholz says the following:
"In the flood of tanker traffic through the Strait, the few ships that have been seized are only a drop, and it would be hard for Iran to seize enough ships to really disrupt the flow of oil. But for individual companies and their insurance providers, the seizures are a problem; and perhaps some potential shippers will be deterred or demand higher rates."
"While the ripple effects do not yet seem to have been very large, the United States and Iran seem to be in a tit-for-tat series of maneuvers regarding oil shipping. The United States was looking for what could be seen as a small(ish) next step, to avoid backing down in the face of Iran. Putting Marines on ships is a step up from having ships hire private security companies, but it is a much smaller step than organizing convoys through the Strait protected by American warships."
"Of course, it’s not at all clear that the Marines can really help solve this problem, unless they are on every ship (and there are lots of them!). And if Marines are on a ship that is harassed by Iranian fast boats, what are they really going to do? If U.S. Marines actually shoot at an Iranian navy or Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps boat, then that will be a huge escalation; it seems like the first interaction between Marines on a commercial ship and Iranians on their boats will be quite a game of chicken. If the Marines are not willing to escalate or are overmatched in a particular situation, then putting the Marines on commercial ships is a recipe for having Iranian control of American military prisoners/hostages again. This came up a few times during the U.S. occupation of Iraq and caused some difficult diplomatic interactions. The United States should be very cautious about taking this particular step of escalation vis-a-vis Iran."
Gholz, who is an expert on national security, economic policy, innovation, defense management and energy security, co-wrote a well-known International Security journal article that coined the term "restraint" as a proposed grand strategy for the United States.
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