The Presidential Race: What's Next?
The country is now waiting for the results of the closest presidential election in 40 years. A recount of votes is taking place in Florida, a state in which television networks had declared Bush the winner early this morning. University of Alabama at Birmingham political scientist James Slack, Ph.D., comments on the election, explains what might happen next and why the exit polls were wrong.
We are now waiting for a recount of the votes in Florida. What could happen next?
"The Bush and Gore camps could make a deal that whatever the outcome of the Florida recount, the loser will live with the results for the good of the country. In the 1960 presidential race, Richard Nixon chose not to dispute the results in Illinois when the votes were so close. He had a reason to ask for a recount, but did not for the good of the country. If Bush and Gore haven't made such a deal, they could challenge the results in court, and typically such disputes would go to a state court."
Why were the exit polls wrong?
"The problem is that exit polls are never as random as you want them to be. Exit polls are conducted by stopping people on the street, and the pollsters are dependent on people who have the time to stop what they are doing to talk. That can skew the results. That might have been the problem in Florida, where your large numbers of senior citizens who may have more time to talk than people who work. Another problem is that exit pollsters are paid by response, so they are more likely to choose people who will be more likely to stop and answer their questions. That also adds to the uncertainty."
James Slack, Ph.D., is chairman of the University of Alabama at Birmingham Department of Government and Public Service.
CALL: Gail Short, UAB Media Relations, 205-934-8931/[email protected].
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