U.S.-led economic sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy, the authors say, resulting in “a staggering rise in the cost of food and basic goods,” an inflation rate of 42 percent, and an unemployment rate of 18 percent. Oil exports have plunged. There is a shortage of medical drugs because Iran can no longer afford to buy the raw materials for drug production.
Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani has been under great internal pressure to deliver on the promise of bringing sanctions relief to the Iranian people. “Thus,” says TCU’s Dorraj, “resolving the nuclear standoff with the United States and its allies looms large on his foreign-policy agenda.”
U.S.-Iranian rapprochement on the nuclear issue could lead to the Rouhani administration displaying a greater willingness to be “flexible” on the Syrian question, the authors say. Iran supports the Assad regime in Syria. “Washington is becoming increasingly cognizant that a political settlement in the Syrian crisis may not be sustainable without Iran’s presence at the table,” Dorraj says.
Concerning Iraq, the authors says that the only way to prevent that nation from falling into another cycle of civil war is to “use the capabilities of Saudi Arabia, Iran and other regional powers. In the aftermath of the departure of U.S. forces, the path to stability in Iraq lies in recognizing the positive role Iran and Saudi Arabia can play in ushering in political stability, given the limits of U.S. military power. Washington must come to grips with the forces of history, tradition and geography that have shaped the regional order in the Persian Gulf, a traditional triangle formed by Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.”
An agreement with Iran on its nuclear program will make such an outcome more likely, they argue.