Kenneth Johnson, professor of sociology at University of New Hampshire and senior demographer at the UNH Carsey Institute, is available to discuss U.S. Census Bureau data released today.
His analysis of the data can be downloaded at http://www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu/publications/FS-JohnsonNationalMigration.pdf.
According to Johnson’s analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data, the nation continues to experience reduced levels of domestic migration (movement from one state) as a result of the economic recession.
“For states that gained the most from domestic migration during the boom years of the mid-decade, the impact of the migration slowdown has been substantial. Florida, long a major recipient of migrants from other states, saw its domestic migration drop from a gain of 263,000 in 2005 to a loss of 31,000 last year,” Johnson said.
Nevada also suffered a domestic migration loss of 4,000 last year after gaining as many as 56,000 domestic migrants as recently as 2005. Arizona’s inflow dropped from 124,000 to only 15,000 last year. Even Georgia and North Carolina, which appeared to be weathering the domestic migration downturn, now show sharply reduced levels of domestic migration gain.
Among states that suffered large domestic migration losses during the boom years, the situation is quite different. With the exception of Michigan, each of the five states with the great migration losses in 2005 either lost fewer domestic migrants last year or actually gained migrants. In New York, the domestic migration loss last year was 98,000 compared to a loss of nearly 233,000 in 2005. Massachusetts enjoyed a modest domestic migration gain of 4,000 last year after losing more than 60,000 domestic migrants as recently as 2005. Ohio and Illinois also experienced less migration loss than they had in 2005.
“With domestic migration at record post-war lows and with immigration also reduced, population growth in United States depends increasingly on the excess of births over deaths. At the national level, natural increase accounted for 67 percent of the total population gain last year,” Johnson said.
There are distinct regional and state level differences in how much influence natural increase has on population growth. In the Midwest, natural increase accounted for all the population increase last year—offsetting migration losses. In the Northeast, natural increase accounted for most (88 percent) of the population gain, but it only accounted for 51 percent of the growth in the South and 68 percent of the growth in the West.
The University of New Hampshire, founded in 1866, is a world-class public research university with the feel of a New England liberal arts college. A land, sea, and space-grant university, UNH is the state's flagship public institution, enrolling more than 12,200 undergraduate and 2,200 graduate students.
PHOTOKenneth Johnson, professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire and senior demographer at the UNH Carsey Institutehttp://www.unh.edu/news/img/ken_johnson.jpg
ANALYSIS“With Less Migration, Natural Increase Now More Important to State Growth”http://www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu/publications/FS-JohnsonNationalMigration.pdf.
GRAPHSMigration Trends Differ for States with a History of Migration Loss or Gainhttp://www.unh.edu/news/img/migrationtrends.gif
Natural Increase Now Accounting for Larger Share of Growth in Migration Magnet States, 2005 and 2009http://www.unh.edu/news/img/naturalincrease.gif
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