Expert Pitch

Record jobless claims may push unemployment rate up to 6%

Cornell University
27-Mar-2020 2:55 PM EDT, by Cornell University

Data released Thursday morning showed how the COVID-19 pandemic is severely damaging the U.S. economy and its labor markets. According to the Labor Department, nearly 3.3 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week.     

Erica Groshen is a senior extension faculty member at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. From 2013 to 2017, she served as the 14th Commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Groshen says that Thursday’s data foreshadows the largest one-month increase in unemployment to date. 

Bio: https://www.ilr.cornell.edu/people/erica-groshen 

Groshen says: 

“The increase in initial claims is very large and translates into consequential impacts on headline labor market statistics that we won't see for another six weeks in the Employment Situation report because of the way that the statistics are constructed.  

“Simple arithmetic suggests that switching 3.1 million U.S. workers from employed to unemployed raises the U.S. unemployment rate from 3.5% to 5.4% (a 1.9 percentage point jump). The largest historical previous one-month increase in unemployment was a 1.3 percentage point jump in October 1949 that was reversed in the next month, presumably due to a large strike. 

“However, surely not all furloughed workers filed for unemployment insurance (UI). In recent years, typically only about 1/3 of the unemployed are receiving UI. If we assume that under these circumstances, 75% of furloughed workers filed (which may be too high), then the unemployment rate implied rises to 6.0%, with the addition of 4.1 million to the ranks of the unemployed. 

“Note, however, that a fair share of the furloughed workers could classify themselves as temporarily out of the labor force in order to care for family members. To the extent that happens, the impact on the unemployment rate will be muted. Thus, it makes sense to focus on the employment to population ratio (EPOP), which was at 61.1 in February. Switching 3.1 million workers out of unemployment lowers EPOP to 60.0 and switching 4.1 million lowers it to 59.6%. 

“For the payroll survey, a loss of 3-4 million jobs or more in one month would dwarf the previous all-time largest decrease in payroll jobs, -1.96 million in September 1945, at the end of World War II.”

 

For interviews contact:
Rebecca Valli
office: 607-255-6035
cell: 607-793-1025
[email protected]

  

Please find other experts at Cornell available to discuss the coronavirus crisis from a science  and public health perspectivefor its impact on the economy and in the ways the pandemic is changing our daily lives.

 

- 30 -

 

 




Filters close

Showing results

110 of 5639
access_time Embargo lifts in 2 days
Embargo will expire: 20-May-2021 10:00 AM EDT Released to reporters: 14-May-2021 2:40 PM EDT

A reporter's PressPass is required to access this story until the embargo expires on 20-May-2021 10:00 AM EDT The Newswise PressPass gives verified journalists access to embargoed stories. Please log in to complete a presspass application. If you have not yet registered, please Register. When you fill out the registration form, please identify yourself as a reporter in order to advance to the presspass application form.

Released: 14-May-2021 11:25 AM EDT
Access to overdose-reversing drugs declined during pandemic, researchers find
Beth Israel Lahey Health

In a new study, clinician-researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) analyzed naloxone prescription trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and compared them to trends in opioid prescriptions and to overall prescriptions.

Released: 14-May-2021 11:00 AM EDT
No Excuses: Stop Procrastinating on These Key Health Checks
Michigan Medicine - University of Michigan

A quick guide to the most-valuable preventive care that adults need to get scheduled, to catch up on what they may have missed during the height of the pandemic, and to address issues that the pandemic might have worsened.

Released: 13-May-2021 7:05 PM EDT
FLCCC Statement on the Irregular Actions of Public Health Agencies & the Disinformation Campaign Against Ivermectin
Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC Alliance)

FLCCC Alliance calls for whistleblower to step forward from within WHO, the FDA, the NIH, Merck, or Unitaid to counter this misrepresentation

Newswise: shutterstock_1724336896.jpg
Released: 13-May-2021 12:55 PM EDT
Kreuter receives $1.9 million in grants to increase vaccinations in St. Louis
Washington University in St. Louis

Matthew Kreuter, the Kahn Family Professor of Public Health at the Brown School, has received $1.9 million in grants to help increase COVID-19 vaccinations among Blacks in St. Louis City and County.

Released: 13-May-2021 11:35 AM EDT
COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines are Immunogenic in Pregnant and Lactating Women, Including Against Viral Variants
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

In a new study from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center researchers evaluated the immunogenicity of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in pregnant and lactating women who received either the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. They found that both vaccines triggered immune responses in pregnant and lactating women.

Released: 13-May-2021 10:30 AM EDT
Pandemic stigma: Foreigners, doctors wrongly targeted for COVID-19 spread in India
Monash University

The Indian public blamed foreigners, minority groups and doctors for the rapid spread of COVID-19 across the country during the first wave, due to misinformation, rumour and long-held discriminatory beliefs, according to an international study led by Monash University.

Released: 13-May-2021 9:15 AM EDT
28 Community Programs Receive Grants Through Penn Medicine CAREs Program
Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania

Penn Medicine CAREs awarded grants to 28 projects, many of which aim to fill vast needs in the community created by the COVID-19 pandemic, while others seek to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion.


Showing results

110 of 5639

close
2.0816