March 14, 2000

Contact: Lew Harris, (615) 343-1271
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Professor at Vanderbilt's Owen Graduate School of Management says small business owners to face the 'challenge of change'

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Small businesses need to be prepared to face the "challenge of change" as they enter the 21st century, according to a landmark study headed by a professor at Vanderbilt University's Owen Graduate School of Management.

"Major current trends and developments suggest accelerating change for smaller businesses in the future-change that will make even those of the past two decades seem slow in comparison," said Richard W. Oliver, professor of management at Vanderbilt University's Owen Graduate School of Management and principal author of the study.

The report was commissioned by American Express Company, IBM Corp. and National Small Business United (NSBU), in cooperation with the Research Institute for Small and Emerging Business, Inc. The report takes a comprehensive look at the future of small and emerging businesses in the United States over the next 15 years.

"We may be on the verge of an `entrepreneurial renaissance' for small and emerging businesses" said Oliver. The potential is here for unprecedented growth in those areas."

Oliver cites three reasons for his positive outlook for small and emerging businesses:

-- Technology empowerment--The low cost of personal computers and Internet access favor smaller businesses by allowing them to match big-business efficiencies, thus enhancing the ability of smaller businesses to communicate with supplier and customers, lower costs, and broaden markets.

-- Democratization of capital--Oliver said there are huge risk capital flows available from private U.S. and international pools of venture capital and private individuals to small and emerging business owners with good ideas. "The unprecedented amounts of money that have been made in the past few years are pouring back into the economy to create new businesses," Oliver said.

-- Flowering of diversity-The makeup of entrepreneurship will change dramatically in the next 10 to 15 years as major demographic shifts create new profiles of business owners. Oliver's study predicts the "face" of small business will more likely be older, female, Hispanic or African American. "This, to me, is very positive," Oliver said.

On a less positive note, Oliver forecasts a dip in the supply of younger workers ages 25 to 44 years old-the principal source of new entrepreneurs-which may result in a temporary reduction in the rate of births of new business. Meanwhile, as older owners-managers, the "Baby Boomers," leave the labor force, the closing rates for smaller businesses may increase dramatically.

More information on the report may be gained on the Internet at
http://www.sbtrends2000.com

--VU--