Pitch
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday (April 19), that 2011 was the worst year for measles in 15 years. About 220 cases were reported, compared with about 60 cases per year between 2001 and 2010. This year, 27 cases already have been reported.
Clyde Martin, Horn Professor of Mathematics at Texas Tech University, led a group that did the detailed analysis and modeling of the 1987 measles epidemic in Lubbock. This research revealed for the first time that greater than 98-percent immunity rate was required to prevent measles epidemics in dense populations such as universities. The State of Texas used the research in the decision to require multiple vaccinations for all school-aged children.
He can discuss the mathematics of measles transmission and why this trend could spell trouble in the future.
Expert
Clyde Martin, Horn Professor of Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, (806) 445-6929 or [email protected].
Talking Points
• The need to vaccinate is greater now than it was 10 years ago because fewer people are getting vaccinated, and the virus now has more people it can infect.• More people are objecting to vaccinations, and fewer doctors are requiring their patients to receive their shots. • Two strains of the virus exist. One causes high fever, which can lead to brain damage, deafness and blindness or even death. The other, milder form can cause fetal damage.• A 1998 paper, which has since been retracted, claimed a connection between the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine and autism. Though the report was declared fraudulent, many people still believe the vaccine may be harmful.• In the 1950s, measles and mumps epidemics in schools were common every two or three years.
Quotes
• “What’s disturbing about this is the number of cases is going up. In 2010, there were only 60 some odd cases. We’ve more than tripled the number of cases from two years ago to last year.”• “With a sample size of 220 cases, you’re not apt to have any serious side effects in that small sample. But if you get up to 1,000 or 2,000 cases, you’re going to have some kids who are blind or deaf.”• “There’s a big problem on the West Coast. Places like California, Washington and Oregon are at risk, because the number of exemptions and number of doctors not insisting on vaccination is higher.”• “The last big epidemics were about 50 years ago. There are very few people practicing medicine now who were practicing at that time. They don’t realize the amount of damage a measles epidemic like that could cause.”• “I remember having measles, and it was awful. If I get a really high fever, I still get delirious. I remember my mother sitting up with me all night putting cold compresses on my head. I was really, really sick. That was in the early ’50s.”• “The message is get your kids vaccinated. All of them. There may be some slight risk of reaction to vaccine, but it’s a lot less than the risk with getting the measles.”
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