“It is important to understand that Mubarak’s leaving power is the beginning of a process, not the end. It could be the beginning of an Egyptian renaissance, but it could also usher in an era of far greater tyranny within Egypt and instability in the region. US policy must be to encourage the former, while guarding against the latter. Whatever leadership emerges, military or civilian, will be hard-pressed to face Egypt’s innumerable social, economic, and political problems. There are no instant solutions to these problems. So far, the Egyptian protesters have appeared moderate in tone and action. But a new government that has difficulty coping with its challenges may turn to radicalism or repression. A primary cause of the current uprising has been economic. Although Egypt was liberalizing its economy and the overall macro-economic numbers were strong, most Egyptians were not benefiting. Unfortunately two of Egypt’s leading sources of income, tourism and tolls on the Suez Canal, will be adversely affected by ongoing turmoil, reducing the Egyptian government’s options for addressing the national challenges.”
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