Advances in technology are driving popularity of EVs

Newswise — Transportation makes up about 33% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, and the acceptance of electric vehicles is perceived by numerous government and private sector specialists as a crucial means to diminish carbon emissions. Around ten years ago, EVs constituted a minute portion of total automobile purchases. As of March 2023, they constitute 7% of fresh sales.

"Kenneth Gillingham, a professor of environmental and energy economics at the Yale School of the Environment, wonders, 'What factors contributed to the shift between then and now? Did consumers suddenly develop a stronger preference for EVs, or did the EV technology itself undergo significant improvements?'"

In a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Gillingham's research reveals that the surge in EV adoption is primarily propelled by technological advancements, whereas overall consumer preferences for EVs have remained relatively unchanged. Notably, enhancements such as extended battery range, faster charging capabilities, declining prices, and lower operational expenses have rendered EVs an appealing alternative to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. The study further highlights the significance of range, indicating that electric cars capable of traveling 300 miles or more on a single charge are considered equally attractive to consumers as their gasoline counterparts.

Gillingham and coauthors from Carnegie Mellon University conducted a survey involving approximately 1,600 individuals who either intended to purchase a car or SUV within the next two years or had made such a purchase in the previous year. Participants were presented with 15 sets of three vehicles, each possessing different attributes, including gasoline-powered, electric, and hybrid models. They were then asked to choose their preferred vehicle from each set. The findings from this survey were compared with those of a similar survey conducted in 2012 and 2013. By analyzing the results, the researchers were able to determine the extent to which the increased adoption of EVs was influenced by consumer preferences versus technological advancements. This led to further investigation and analysis.

“The big question is what happens next,” Gillingham says.

To address this question, the researchers combined their findings on consumer adoption trends with projected advancements in vehicle technology and anticipated new EV releases. Gillingham highlights the significant number of over 100 upcoming EV models expected to hit the global market within the next three to four years. Considering this information collectively, it indicates that EVs could comprise 40-60% of all new car and SUV sales by the year 2030. In summary, it is conceivable that EVs could potentially dominate the market within a mere seven-year timeframe.

According to the authors, these findings have important implications for policymakers, indicating that swift transformation and ambitious targets may indeed be attainable. Gillingham specifically mentions one of the recently proposed rules by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which aims to restrict greenhouse gas emissions from cars and small trucks. If this rule is implemented, it has the potential to drive EVs to account for approximately two-thirds of all new vehicle sales by 2032. This further reinforces the notion that a rapid shift towards EVs is both feasible and within reach.

Gillingham clarifies that their study does not definitively state that EVs will undoubtedly dominate the market, but it does suggest that such a scenario is not out of reach. He emphasizes that there is a genuine possibility of EVs comprising a majority of all cars sold by 2030. While it remains uncertain, the study's findings and the ongoing advancements in EV technology and consumer adoption trends indicate a potential shift towards a majority EV market within the mentioned timeframe.

The implications of the research are also evident for manufacturers, and many of them have already taken notice of the noticeable market shifts. General Motors (GM) has announced its plans to exclusively sell electric vehicles by 2035. Similarly, Lexus, a division of Toyota, has set the same goal. Gillingham suggests that these announcements align with the findings of the research and reinforce the need for substantial investments to facilitate this transition. The data supports the notion that a significant shift towards EVs is underway, motivating manufacturers to commit to and prepare for an electric future.

"Prominent EV-focused automakers will find reassurance in our findings," he remarks. "However, manufacturers that are falling behind should carefully consider their strategies and future plans."