A decade after Hurricane Andrew ripped through South Florida, a Florida State University researcher said state and federal emergency planners are better prepared to handle disasters, but the general public is no more inclined to respond to mandatory evacuation orders than they were then.
FSU geography Professor Earl "Jay" Baker, who has studied public response to hurricanes for 30 years, said many people are either not getting the message or are not taking mandatory evacuation orders seriously.
"The public response was not very good then, and I don't think it would be better today," said Baker, who conducted a study examining the response of South Florida residents to hurricane threats since Andrew.
Only 70 percent of the residents of Miami-Dade County's barrier islands evacuated before Andrew made landfall on Aug. 24, 1992, Baker said. Considered the most damaging hurricane to hit the United States, it claimed 23 lives in Florida and Louisiana, left thousands homeless and caused the 2002 equivalent of $33 billion in property damage.
During 1999's Hurricane Floyd, only 47 percent of the residents of Miami-Dade's barrier islands heeded mandatory evacuation orders, according to Baker, who studied the Floyd evacuation for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Although Floyd ended up turning north and making landfall in Wilmington, N.C., the consequences could have been severe if it had continued its trajectory to South Florida. Response to evacuation orders in the Florida Keys during 2001's Hurricane Michelle also was poor.
The low response rates indicate that people have inaccurate perceptions about their vulnerability and do not understand if evacuation notices apply to them.
Baker's study found that a surprising 28 percent of residents living in single family structures on the Dade and Broward beaches think their homes would be safe in a 155 mph hurricane. About 49 percent of residents living in high-rise structures on the beach think their residence would be safe.
Emergency managers need to try new ways to get people to heed mandatory evacuation orders, he said.
"If I had to do two things, I would work harder during a threat to make sure the people I was trying to evacuate got the message and not just rely on television to get the word out," Baker said. "I would also try to educate people in the off-season to show how high the water would get in their homes and what the wind velocity could do. People need to know how bad it would be if they chose to stay in their homes during a major hurricane."
On the other hand, the congested interstates during Floyd illustrated the problem that occurs when those who do not need to evacuate do so. Baker's Floyd study also found that many people traveled much farther than they needed to -- again clogging the roads. Those living in flood zones often can find safety in a non-surge area on the other side of town, he said.
Despite continuing problems with evacuation issues, Baker said Andrew has had some positive effects.
"It had a huge effect on public policy," Baker said. "State and county building codes have changed. Construction standards for mobile homes have changed to withstand higher winds. The funding in the state of Florida for emergency planning has increased a great deal since then, and it resulted in a different attitude at FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) about what their obligations are."
Although deadly hurricanes like Andrew make an impact, memories are often short, Baker said, noting that while small towns like Homestead were devastated by the hurricane, residents just a few miles north were spared.
"Overall in South Florida, most people didn't really experience Andrew, so I don't think it's really on their minds," he said. "But the people living in southern Miami-Dade at the time -- they'll never forget it."
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