Newswise — Psychological anthropologist and Hamilton College professor Douglas Raybeck has issued yearly predictions related to technological and political issues. Most have proved true. Based on his experiences conducting research in Muslim regions and his study of cultural change in the U.S., Raybeck has issued his major predictions for the year 2006:
1. The situation in Iraq will get worse rather than better, continuing to serve as a rallying cry for Moslem extremists bent on violent opposition to U. S. interests. Political and social unrest will spread to Lebanon and to Egypt. Discontented elements will be emboldened by the manner in which a comparative handful of terrorists have been able to stalemate the world's greatest superpower.
2. There is likely to be another terrorism incident, something other than using an airplane as a guided missile. We remain vulnerable to biological attacks, dirty bombs and such comparatively mundane but terribly destructive acts as liquid natural gas explosions in some of our major port cities. In response, the developed countries will increase their use of visual and electronic surveillance, and their peoples will largely support these moves.
3. The acrimonious differences between Republicans and Democrats will become even more pronounced and will hurt Republicans more than Democrats once Democrats begin to emphasize the role of the far right in creating Republican policy: "Don't listen to what they say. Watch what they do!" Reductions in medicare, education bills, environmental protection accompanied by the parallel defense of tax breaks for the wealthy will serve as proof. Republicans will learn that voters aren't as unaware as they had thought, while Democrats will acknowledge that voters are not as smart as they had hoped.
4. 2005's catastrophes ranging from earthquakes, to tsunamis, to typhoons to hurricanes, will energize a commitment to improving the care we give our planet. Genuine steps will be taken to limit global warming. Even the United States will begin to pass laws to reduce emissions and to develop alternative energy sources.----------------------------------------------------------------------
Douglas Raybeck, professor of anthropology at Hamilton College, studies psychological anthropology and has been a fellow at the National Institutes of Health. His most recent book,"Looking Down the Road: A Systems Approach to Future Studies," (Waveland Press, 2000) looks at the future of American culture. An earlier book, "Mad Dogs, Englishmen and the Errant Anthropologist," summarizes his fieldwork in Malaysia. Raybeck has spent years living in Muslim regions of Southeast Asia.
RSS