After the Nevada caucuses for both the Democratic and Republican parties, a political scientist who studies executive power said that barring major upheavals, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will most likely become the presidential nominees for their respective parties.
Dan Franklin is an associate professor of political science at Georgia State and is the author of “Pitiful Giants: Presidents in their Final Term” (Palgrave MacMillian, 2014), which examines past U.S. presidents in their final years in office.
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"All I can say is that we live in interesting times," Franklin said. "It appears that after the Nevada Caucuses Hillary has a clear path to the nomination. The only real impediment in her way is the e-mail scandal. I don’t see how Bernie Sanders wins."
On the Republican side, he said that Trump is almost a lock to win the nomination, having won in different types of environments politically and in different sections of the country.
The options standing in front of the Republican Party has narrowing options, none of which are very good, Franklin said.
"Most likely it can fall in line and support Trump," he said. "Or it could try to broker some kind of grand bargain between John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to present a united front.
"This is probably going on right now, but it won't work," Franklin said. "Besides not all Kasich, Rubio and Cruz voters will go to a compromise candidate," noting how Trump's delegate count is increasing as is his percentage of support.
In the third option, party leaders could expel Trump from the GOP and declare the winner based on whoever gains second place, he said.
"The problem then is, that they will split the party and lose in the general election," Franklin said.
And a final, albeit unusual option is there, one that would highly unusual for a presidential system of government such as the United States, he said -- if the party leadership is determined to keep Trump from becoming president, period.
"They can go to the Democrats and try to broker a 'grand compromise' that will last for four years at which point there will be a reset," Franklin said. "A 'government of national unity' is not unusual in parliamentary systems."
For more information about Franklin, including his research, books and journal articles, visit http://politicalscience.gsu.edu/profile/daniel-p-franklin/.
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