Newswise — FIRST MAJOR TEST FOR INDIANA'S VOTER ID LAW. Indiana's Democratic primary will pose the biggest test yet for the state's controversial voter ID law. Opponents charge the law disproportionally hampers registered voters who are poor, elderly, very young or minorities. Indiana University election law expert Michael J. Pitts says the large turnout expected for the primary will provide a good set of circumstances from which to gauge the impact of the law. "With Barak Obama's great support among African Americans and college students, we will have a better idea about how Indiana's voter identification law impacts elections," he said. Pitts is an associate professor of law and dean's fellow at the IU School of Law-Indianapolis. His scholarship focuses on the law of democracy, particularly the Voting Rights Act. Pitts said elections rarely are trouble free. He is interested to see, for example, whether the reduction in the number of precincts in Marion County (where Indianapolis is located) will have an impact on this election. In addition, problems with voting machines could occur on election day.
BACKGROUND: A statute passed by Indiana's legislature in 2005 requires voters to present a photo ID issued by the state or federal government. The ID must have an expiration date and the name on the ID must be similar to the name on voter registration records. A student ID from an Indiana state school may be used if it meets certain criteria, but student IDs from private institutions are not acceptable. Indiana's voter ID law is considered among the most restrictive in the nation. Supporters say the law is needed to prevent voter fraud. Opponents say the elderly, very young, poor and minorities are more likely to lack photo identification and, thus, are disproportionately affected when a photo ID is required in order to vote. The U.S. Supreme Court is considering whether Indiana's law violates the First and Fourteenth Amendments and is expected to issue a decision in the case by the end of June. For more information about Indiana's law, visit http://www.in.gov/sos/photoid/.
MODERATION IS A VIRTUE IN INDIANA POLITICS. Indiana's reputation as a reliable "red state" in presidential elections belies its balanced politics, says Russell Hanson, professor of political science at IU Bloomington. "Democrats have also done well in elections to the lower chamber of the Indiana General Assembly," he said. "Keep in mind that most Democrats in Indiana are only slightly left of center, ideologically speaking. Sen. Evan Bayh is a perfect example, but also look at Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, the three Democrats who took seats from Republicans in the 2006 Congressional election. Conversely, the Republican party, though to the right of center, is not dominated by social conservatives. Sen. Richard Lugar and even Gov. Mitch Daniels are typical; Rep. Mike Pence may not be. Because the ideological center of gravity in both parties is reasonably close to the middle, Democrats have been able to compete at the state and substate level. Recent Democratic Presidential candidates, on the other hand, have been noticeably more liberal than many Indiana Democrats, and have fared poorly in the state."
Hanson also notes: Democratic strength is concentrated in certain parts of the state. "Historically, Democrats have done well in the northwest corner of the state; in unionized areas such as Anderson, Kokomo and Fort Wayne; the central city of Indianapolis (but not the suburbs); university towns, e.g. Bloomington and West Lafayette; and southeastern Indiana, in the 9th district that Lee Hamilton represented for so long. Democrats also have been competitive in the 8th district, or southwestern Indiana (including Evansville). Keep in mind that southern Indiana has much in common with northern Kentucky, culturally speaking, so these areas are moderate to conservative Democrat; many voters are what used to be called Reagan Democrats." In the Democratic presidential primary, "St. Joseph County (South Bend) will be a battleground. Once a strongly unionized area, its demographics match the profile of Clinton supporters. On the other hand, the presence of two universities probably helps Obama. Joe Donnelly, who was aided by Evan Bayh in 2006, has remained neutral, so far, but Tim Roemer, who used to represent South Bend in Congress, has endorsed Obama. Each candidate has important endorsements from local party leaders who can be counted on to get out the vote, so I expect this to be a closely contested county on May 6. The outcome may depend on which candidate does a better job of turning out his or her voters. It's conceivable that the winner here will be able to claim a few extra delegates, and that may be what separates the candidates' delegate totals in the end."
NEWS IMAGES OF CANDIDATES PLAY A SUBSTANTIVE ROLE IN SHAPING ELECTION OUTCOMES. Even when they aren't speaking, candidates project visual cues that shape public opinion about their character and leadership qualities, say two Indiana University professors and co-authors of the forthcoming book, Image Bite Politics: News and the Visual Framing of Elections (Oxford University Press). "In presidential races where candidates don't differ much on issues, as in the current Democratic Party primaries, perceptions of candidate character become a key point in voter decision making," said Betsi Grabe, an associate professor in the Department of Telecommunications.
"Television is the superior medium for conveying character. It provides us with a fishbowl view of politicians as they blaze the campaign trail. If we see them acting awkwardly or unleader-like, we notice that -- at least as much as we notice verbal blunders. Grabe points to the so-called "charisma factor" surrounding Sen. Barack Obama's campaign. "His image handlers clearly promote his statesman qualities. Obama stays above the fray, his rallies are designed for visual pomp and ceremony,. and he dresses like a statesman. When he flirted with projecting populist images -- such as bowling and hand-feeding calves -- he quickly learned that both the media and the people frowned in disbelief," she said. Read more about their research here, http://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/7614.html.
CANDIDATES LOOKING FOR VOTERS WHO WATCH NON-TRADITIONAL NEWS SOURCES. On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, the two Democratic presidential candidates made appearances on non-traditional television news sources -- Hillary Clinton on MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Olbermann and Barack Obama on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. "The appearance of both Democratic presidential hopefuls on these programs speaks to the growing importance of non-traditional television news programs as sources of political information for American voters," said Julia R. Fox, associate professor of telecommunications at Indiana University. "Given the lack of substantive coverage on mainstream television news sources -- for example, the most recent democratic presidential debate on ABC, which was roundly criticized for emphasizing scandals instead of campaign issues like the war in Iraq and the economy -- it's no wonder that candidates and voters are turning to alternative programming," Fox said. Fox's publications include a content analysis that found considerably more hype than substance in the broadcast television networks' presidential election coverage from 1988-2000. More recently, Fox and her graduate students conducted a content analysis that found the broadcast television networks' nightly newscasts and The Daily Show with Jon Stewart to be equally substantive in their coverage of the 2004 Democratic and Republican conventions and the first presidential debate. The Daily Show study received national and international media attention and was published last year by the Journal of Broadcast and Electronic Media. Read more about this study here, http://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/4159.html.
WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR REPUBLICANS? Leslie Lenkowsky, professor in the IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs, served from 2001 through 2003 as chief executive officer of the Corporation for National and Community Service, appointed by President George W. Bush. He addresses the question of whether conservatives will support John McCain. "Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels did an interesting speech last weekend before a conservative group, saying essentially that they need to get past Ronald Reagan and look at McCain for what he is, not how he compares to Reagan," he said. "Mitch supported McCain early. I tend to agree with Mitch on this." Another big issue for Republicans, Lenkowsky notes, is how well McCain will do against either of the likely Democratic nominees. "I don't think anyone has any hard data on that yet, but I am a little unconventional in thinking Obama will be an easier opponent than Hillary. Why? It's always easier to run against someone who is not very well defined (as is the case for Obama) than someone who is well known, warts and all, which is, of course, Hillary." Lenkowsky can also comment on the positions the candidates have taken on national service and on the importance of the youth vote and civic engagement, speaking from the perspective of his work with the Corporation for National and Community Service.
DON'T FORGET CONGRESSIONAL CONTESTS. Indiana was a congressional battleground state in November 2006. And this year, two congressional primaries are of interest, says Brian Vargus, professor of political science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. Of primary interest is the 7th Congressional District Democratic primary, which features seven candidates, including "incumbent" Andre Carson, recently elected in a special election. "This district -- basically Indianapolis -- is almost a certain D seat in the fall," Vargus said. "However, the challengers, especially African American M.D. and former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers, are spending huge amounts on TV, etc." Two state representatives, African American Carolene Mays and physician-law professor David Orentlicher, are also in the race. "First impressions were that Orentlicher would get the white vote (55-65 percent of the district) in the primary and the black vote would split two or three ways," Vargus said. "The winner needs only a plurality. However, the Marion County Democratic Committee has spent heavily for Carson. The only poll I know of -- done privately -- showed Carson with 40 percent of the vote, but it was internal and sounded somewhat suspicious. Issue: Do new voters brought to the polls by Obama move down the ticket, and does Carson's endorsement of Obama carry him?" The other interesting primary,Vargus said, is the Republican primary in Indiana's heavily suburban and Republican 5th District, in which incumbent Dan Burton is opposed by a respected M.D. and former coroner, John McGoff. "McGoff only has about one-third of Burton's reported money," Vargus said, "but he has enough to make some 'noise' and has traditional yard signs, radio and small TV buys. Burton probably will hold it, but he has been attacked by the largest newspaper in the state, the Indianapolis Star, and has been on the counter-attack since he knew he would have an opponent. He has a huge war chest and also has used incumbent's advantages, e.g. heavy franking in the district, etc. He should prevail, but many residents find his missed votes, illegitimate child and endorsement of conspiracy theories about Vince Foster an embarrassment. He should be favored, but an upset is always possible."
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