Newswise — David Mednicoff, assistant professor of legal studies and public policy at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, is available to comment on current Middle East issues, including changes in Israeli leadership, Iran's decision to resume uranium enrichment and the war in Iraq.
With Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon incapacitated by a massive stroke, many observers are questioning the direction of Israeli politics and the future of the peace process. However, Mednicoff says the prime minister's exit from the political arena also raises longer-term issues for the region.
"We're witnessing a generational change in Middle Eastern leaders. Sharon's incapacitation is just the most dramatic example of this," says Mednicoff. "This is another move away from the last generation in Israel and Arab countries—leaders who rose to power mostly after careers in the military."
A shift away from political leaders whose ideals were not formed by conflict could have far-reaching implications for the region, he suggests.
Mednicoff says that Ehud Olmert, the acting prime minister, is likely to lead the new centrist Kadima party to victory in the March 28 general election, but doesn't rule out the chances of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party.
During the campaign, which resumed this week, Israeli policy toward the Palestinians probably won't change dramatically, he says. But the results of the election could be influenced by an upsurge in Palestinian attacks. "Israeli voters may decide to take a hard stance on security issues," Mednicoff says.
Security is also a key issue in the burgeoning dispute over Iran's decision to resume its uranium enrichment program over the objections of Britain, France, Germany and the U.S. Iran's defiance of the West could propel the issue to the U.N. Security Council.
Mednicoff says U.S. military action against Iran is unlikely with so many troops already committed in Iraq and shifting public support for the war. Given that situation, along with continuing American diplomatic efforts on North Korea's nuclear program, he says, Iranian leaders may sense that the U.S. is less inclined to resort to military action. In Mednicoff's view, an attack on Iran would prove "unwise and difficult."
"It's not an easy policy problem. It's hard to stop a country that wants to develop nukes," says Mednicoff. "But I'm also not convinced that most governments would use them."
In fact, he suggests that the nuclear program, which Tehran insists is not weapons-related, may be part of a larger effort to build solidarity among particular segments of the Iranian people by playing up political themes that retain some popular resonance. Similarly, says Mednicoff, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent comment that Israel should be "wiped off the map" and his repudiation of the Holocaust "may be intended for domestic political effect."
Ahmadinejad's remarks, which were widely condemned, "should be taken seriously," says Mednicoff, "but may not reflect clear policy commitments of Iran."
As for Iraq, Mednicoff says he is encouraged by the recent elections and voter turnout, but the continuing American military presence is fueling the insurgency. "It's confirming what a lot of us who opposed the war were concerned about. It's hard for a foreign military to come in and create a stable government. The odds were stacked against the U.S."
"The U.S. has become the target," he says. "I hope that a stable government will emerge and the U.S. will start to reduce its presence. Although by no means inevitable, improvements in the lives of Iraqis and democracy do have a chance to take root and could eventually reap benefits for the country, but only if they are shepherded by a truly Iraqi government."
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