Newswise — Princess Kiko, the wife of Japan's second prince, is scheduled to deliver a baby by C-section tomorrow —Wednesday, Sept. 6.
If the baby is a girl (like the other three babies born so far to Japan's aging princesses), Japan will be faced with a succession "crisis" because the current imperial succession law does not allow a girl to ascend to the Chrysanthemum Throne. If it is a boy, the nation can let out a sigh of relief that it can postpone, for now, the politically-loaded debate over whether to allow a woman to become emperor.
Leonard J. Schoppa, associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia and author of the recently-released book "Race for the Exits," argues that the brouhaha over the sex of the latest royal baby is a sign that Japan has yet to confront outdated social norms and social structures that have driven the nation's fertility rate down to a record low of 1.25, one of the lowest in the industrialized world. (A fertility rate of 2.1 is required for population replacement.)
Even though government officials have declared their intent to create a "gender equal society" that will encourage more women to have children by promising them more support from state social programs, employers and fathers, the unwillingness of many conservatives to accept a female successor to the imperial throne suggests the country still has a long way to go.
THE PRIME MINISTERIAL SUCCESSION
Later this month, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will step down from the top office he has held for more than five years when the Liberal Democratic Party holds its primary election on Sept. 19-20 to replace him as party leader.
Having held onto power for longer than any Japanese leader since Prime Minister Eisaku Sato retired in 1972, Koizumi leaves behind a significant legacy. He has presided over the beginnings of an economic recovery after 15 years of slow growth. And after kicking out more than 30 of his opponents from the long-ruling LDP, he has made significant progress toward his goal of transforming the party from a factionalized, cautious protector of rural interests into a bold supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.
Koizumi's most-likely successor, Shinzo Abe, aspires to be a younger copy of his mentor, but he is likely to be more cautious and tentative in his leadership style, at least at first. If he succeeds in leading the LDP to victory in upper house elections next summer, he will probably devote significant energy to revising the "peace clause" of Japan's constitution.
Leonard Schoppa can be reached for comment on a range of topics relating to the impending royal birth and Japan's current political crisis, the upcoming succession of prime ministers and the impact of a low birth rate on Japanese society.
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