Newswise — Independent polling of Iraqi citizens shows a consistent pattern: overwhelming support of a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, but mixed with a desire for the U.S. to help train security forces, says University of Maryland pollster Steven Kull, director of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes and WorldPublicOpinion.org.
In recent congressional testimony, Kull, said that Iraqi public sentiment would likely support some ongoing economic and military relationship with the United States after withdrawal. Kull charted Iraqi attitudes based on a series of polls that he and other organizations have conducted this year and in the past.
"It is clear that the Iraqi people are quite eager for the U.S. to lighten its military footprint in Iraq," Kull told a panel of the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs. "More importantly it appears that they are eager to regain their sense of sovereignty. As long as they do not have this sense, they are likely to continue to have a fundamentally hostile attitude toward all aspects of the U.S. presence in Iraq. However, as Iraqis gradually regain this sense that their country belongs to them, they will likely move toward wanting some ongoing relationship with the U.S., both economic and military, to help them find their way out of this troubled period of their long history."
Kull's complete July 23, 2008 testimony from is available at World Public Opinion.org:http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/517.php?nid=&id=&pnt=517&lb
It is also available at the subcommittee Web site:http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/110/kul072308.pdf.
EXCERPTS FROM KULL'S TESTIMONY:
July 23, 2008House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight
DR. KULL: Today I will be addressing the question of how the Iraqi people view the presence of US troops in Iraq and, more importantly, what they want to see happen in the future. As I will demonstrate, the Iraqi people are showing signs of impatience with the pace of US withdrawal.
Now one may ask why this matters... As long as the government wants US troops there, one may believe that it does not matter what the Iraqi public thinks.
However, it does appear that the Iraqi government is paying attention to the Iraqi public. As you probably know, 144 of the 275 members of Parliament signed a letter calling for a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops, citing as a key reason the attitudes of the Iraqi people...
Thus, if the US government wishes to play a constructive role in the future of Iraq it behooves us to understand better the dynamics of public opinion and thus the forces of the political universe within which Iraqi leaders are operating...
So turning now to the polling data: is the story simply that Iraqis want US forces to leave Iraq? I will indeed be presenting some data that say that Iraqis want US troops to leave within a near-term time frame.
But I will then show some data suggesting that their attitudes are not quite that simple: That there is some interest in a continuing relationship with US forces, but only in a context in which the relationship between the US and the Iraqi government is fundamentally changed from what it is now.
I will start with the most recent polling.
# In March of this year ORB conducted a poll for the British Channel 4, asking Iraqis what they would like to see happen with the Multinational Forces. Seventy percent said they want the Multi National Forces to leave, with 78 percent of this group wanting them to leave within six months or less and 84 percent within a year...# In a poll conducted in February of this year for a consortium of news outlets led by ABC News, 73 percent said they oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq. Sixty-one percent said that the presence of US forces in Iraq is making the security situation in Iraq worse.
Iraqis have been asking for a timetable for withdrawal for some time now.
# At the beginning of 2006 WorldPublicOpinion.org found that 7 in 10 wanted US-led forces out according to timetable of two years or less. About a year later 7 in 10 favored a timetable of one year or less.# In late 2006 the US State Department conducted polls in numerous major Iraqi cities and consistently found about two-thirds calling for the US to leave.
While some might think that the Iraqi people should be impressed with the results of the surge on stability in Iraq, most insist that they are not&Iraqis seem to shrug off concerns about the security implications of a US withdrawal...
Now, all this said, it would seem that the Iraqis are giving a pretty unequivocal message for US-led forces to leave Iraq within a fairly narrow time frame. However, there are other poll questions in which the Iraqi people express a desire for some degree of continued involvement.
# The very same ABC News poll that delivered some of the harshest criticism of US troops also asked whether the US should have 'a future role' in a number of areas. Remarkably high numbers said that it should. Seventy-six percent favored the US providing training and weapons to the Iraqi army. Eight in 10 favored the US participating in security operations against al-Qaeda or other jihadists operating in Iraq - something that would, of course, be at odds with the US completely withdrawing all its forces.
Support for non-military forms of involvement has also been high.
# The WorldPublicOpinion.org poll found 68 percent favoring 'helping Iraqis organize their communities to address local needs such as building schools and health clinics.'# More broadly, the Channel 4 poll asked Iraqis whether they want the US to play a larger or smaller role in the future of Iraq. Only 22 percent said they want the US to play a smaller role. The largest number - 40 percent - said they want the US to play a bigger role and another 13 percent want America's role to remain the same as now.
So what is going on here? How is it that on one hand Iraqis think the presence of US troops makes the security situation worse and they should leave within a year, and on the other hand that it would be very nice if they were to train Iraqi forces and help with the security situation vis-A -vis al Qaeda?
Here is my interpretation. There are two frames through which Iraqis view US-led forces in their country. One frame - the weaker frame - is that security in Iraq is still fragile and that the US may be able to offer some aid to Iraq.
The other and more dominant frame is that the United States has effectively occupied Iraq. As early as 2004 Gallup asked Iraqis whether they primarily thought of coalition forces as liberators or occupiers. Seventy-one percent said occupiers.
In a variety of ways Iraqis signal that they do not feel that they have genuine sovereignty. In our September 2006 poll 77 percent said that they assumed that the US plans to have permanent bases in Iraq. More importantly, 78 percent said they thought that if the Iraqi government were to tell the US to withdraw its forces, the US would refuse to do so. Our analysis of this poll found that frustration with this situation may be related to support for attacks on US troops...
So what does this suggest? It suggests that what is key here is that the US needs to address the feeling held by most Iraqis that they are not being treated as a sovereign power. One way that has been widely discussed is for the US to set a timetable for withdrawal. This would make unambiguous that US troops will eventually leave.
Some have argued that a timetable would weaken the government because it would send a signal to the insurgents that the US is not determined to stay the course. However, WorldPublicOpinion.org has found that only one in four Iraqis appear to agree. Rather, 53 percent have said that a timetable would strengthen the government. Presumably this would be because it would contribute to the perception that the government is, or at least will soon be, the real power in the country.
More fundamentally, the US must find ways to show respect for the Iraqi government. It should be recognized that for the US to have such powers as the right to arrest and imprison Iraqis independent of the oversight of the Iraqi government weakens the perception that the Iraqi government is in charge. Most important, though, convincingly sending the message that the US will only be in Iraq as long as the government wants it to be is central...
In closing, it is clear that the Iraqi people are quite eager for the US to lighten its military footprint in Iraq. More importantly it appears that they are eager to regain their sense of sovereignty. As long as they do not have this sense, they are likely to continue to have a fundamentally hostile attitude toward all aspects of the US presence in Iraq.
However, as Iraqis gradually regain this sense that their country belongs to them, they will likely move toward wanting some ongoing relationship with the US, both economic and military, to help them find their way out of this troubled period of their long history.
-Steven Kull testimony July 23, 2008-
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